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200
FXUS61 KRNK 281056
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
656 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A series of upper disturbances will pass across today into
Wednesday that could allow for isolated shower and thunderstorms
in parts of the far north and west. Otherwise mainly dry and
less humid weather is expected to persist through the work week.
The next main chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
looks to be over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Mainly dry and pleasant conditions with isolated chance for
showers or storms in the far western mountains.

Early this morning there is a cluster of showers pushing into
the far SWERN CWA perhaps associated with a weak low level wave.
This should diminish here in the next few hours or so. Expect
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies for the vast majority of the
area today as we mainly stay in a drier post frontal airmass
though still east of the broad upper trough axis. A weak
amplification and perturbation traversing the flow may allow for
isolated convection in the far northern mountains for the
afternoon. Will need to monitor how some of the CAM guidance
trends as the Nam nest looks to be an outlier with an area of
perhaps more organized convection propagating into more of the
mountains this evening, though quickly diminishing in
coverage/intensity.

Max temps today look to mostly range from the upper 60s to mid
70s in the mountains and low to mid 80s in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1). Upper low eastern Great Lakes dominates the weather
conditions through the period.

2). Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

3). Scattered showers in the mountains Wednesday and Thursday
diminishing/ending by Friday.

A broad upper-low anchored over the Great Lakes will dominate
the weather through this period. 850mb temperatures will drop
into the +5C to +8c through the period resulting in unseasonably
cool temperatures in the 40s at night and only 60s daytime for
the mountains with 50s to 70s Piedmont during this time frame.
Cyclonic flow and steep daytime lapse rates as a result of the
strong late May insolation and cold temperatures aloft will
promote considerable daytime cloud cover, less so at night.
Upslope northwest flow combined with subtle disturbances
tracking through the base of the deep upper low will aid in the
development of scattered light rain showers across the
mountains. Given the steep lapse rates, an isolated
afternoon/early evening thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out,
especially near the I-64 corridor where instability and dynamics
will be the greatest. Any rainfall will be spotty and light
with little to none in the Piedmont through the period. Severe
weather is not expected.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1). Somewhat more unsettled weather conditions expected to
evolve through the weekend into early next week.

2). Very slow warming trend with temperatures very close to
seasonal normals through the first few days of June.

The upper-low that will dominate the weather scene through the
later half of the week will begin to move northeast over the
weekend. The flow aloft will become increasingly zonal as a
result. Embedded within this zonal flow is a vigorous highly
kinematic short wave that will spread into the region from the
west during the later part of the weekend into the first half of
next week. As a result, look for an increasing threat for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and beyond into the first half
of next week. This will be the next chance for any severe
weather and heavy rain. Until then, weather conditions remain
relatively benign for the region with seasonal temperatures.

Maximum temperatures will be mostly in the 70s west to the lower
80s Piedmont. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s/50s
trending toward mostly 50s by the weekend.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions through period though some MVFR cigs could
flirt with KBLF and KLWB this morning. Otherwise expect FEW/SCT
cu field near 4-5 kft today into this evening. Could have some
alto coverage by this evening also. Some isolated SHRA/TSRA
possible mainly this afternoon near KLWB but chance not high
enough to include in TAF. Winds generally light out of the west
this morning, increasing to 7-11 kts during the day (gusts near
18-20 kts for KBLF and KLWB), then light west to calm this
evening into tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR tonight through much of the week. There is a low chance for
showers and thunderstorms across WV Wednesday.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PH/VFJ
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AB/RAB