-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
387
FXUS61 KRNK 301841
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
241 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually track across the
Mid Atlantic region tonight through Saturday then offshore by
Sunday. Dry weather with unseasonably cool temperatures will
continue into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms return to the
region for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

   - Tranquil weather continues

500MB heights rise on Friday with upper ridging over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Western Great Lakes will track southeast and will be centered over
Lake Erie by Friday morning. Large diurnal range between minimum
temperatures tonight and highs on Friday due to dry air mass. Lows
tonight will be around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Quiet and cool conditions this weekend

2: Showers and storms return Sunday

Surface high pressure over the east coast will maintain the recent
calmer weather pattern through most of the weekend. As that feature
slides off the Atlantic coast overnight Saturday into Sunday, a
stark upper ridging pattern will become increasingly zonal on
Sunday. This will give way to a small embedded shortwave to move up
from the KY and TN valleys into the OH River Valley. The shortwave
will interact with southeasterly return flow resulting from a
surface high off the Carolinas. The available moisture and forcing
from a shortwave will result in the first widespread rain event in
almost a week. Without much other support tough, not expecting these
storms to develop into severe thunderstorms at this juncture.
Scattered thunder will definitely be on the table.

Temperatures will be rather cool for the first week of June.
Overnight temps will be in the 40s and 50s, and daytime highs will
be in the 70s and low 80s. The southeasterly fetch of the southern
Atlantic will temper these cool conditions a bit, but it won`t feel
quite "summery" this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled pattern will lead to diurnal shower chances

2: Late week front will keep rain in the forecast

Timing and impact details of next week`s weather are fairly
uncertain. A broad high remains to our east, which will work to
advect in moisture higher temperatures, but the weak pressure
gradient indicates that the effect of this feature will be minimal
in changing our weather pattern a great deal. With largely zonal mid-
level flow, a few embedded shortwaves will pass through, with low
confidence of their timing. In general, we can expect the diurnal
showers and storms common for this time of year.

The next well-defined feature that could see a definitive change in
our current pattern is a late week front co-located with a strong
cut-off low. This would bring a round of storms and showers to
almost the entire forecast area, but again, timing solutions from
model guidance are disparate. Anytime on Thursday or Friday would be
the current timeframe for that system.

Temperatures will warm back up a bit next week, and should be around
normal for early June.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions tonight and Friday.

500MB heights rise on Friday with upper ridging over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Western Great Lakes will track southeast and will be centered over
Lake Erie by Friday morning.

Northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots will continue until this
evening. Wind speeds then diminish as high pressure cover the
area.

Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees below normal and that
cooler air will produce patchy MVFR over area rivers and lakes.
Any fog that develops overnight will dissipate quickly after
sunrise on Friday.

High clouds will fill in from the west over the mountains Friday
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings.

Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG