-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
597
FXUS61 KRNK 301546
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1146 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler high pressure will build in for today and
Friday with below normal temperatures. The next chance
of rain will be late this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1140 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and mostly sunny conditions today. Temperatures below
normal.

Only minor changes to sky cover and temperatures based on the
latest satellites images and observations.


Previous discussion...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...


Troughing over the east remains in place today with northwest
flow persisting. 850mb jet modeled around 30 to 35kts and this
will be enough to remain well-mixed overnight, especially over
the ridges. Highest elevations still gusting close to 20mph.
Being well- mixed and coupled with large dew point depressions,
fog development seems rather unlikely through this morning.

Trough amplifies today and shifts east into the Atlantic late
tonight. Will have strong Canadian high pressure build in behind
the trough bringing clear and calm skies tonight. Chilly
temperatures are expected overnight and will see widespread mid
to low 40s. Some sheltered elevated valleys may even reach the
upper 30s. Daytime highs in the upper 60s to 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Benign and dry weather conditions with below normal
  temperatures.

A broad upper low anchored across eastern Canada will continue
to dominate the weather conditions within the RNK CWA throughout
the forecast period. A pocket of unseasonably cold air at 850mb
with temperatures as low as -1C across NY/New England will dip
into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend. Temperatures through the weekend will average around 10
degrees below normal for minimums and around 5 degrees below
normal for maximums. A few low temperatures in the 30s are
expected at locations such as Burkes Garden as well as
potentially Lewisburg Friday morning and only a few degrees
warmer than this Saturday morning. Normal low temperatures at
this time of year are mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Otherwise,
it will be a beautiful weekend with abundant sunshine and
temperatures reaching the 70s in the afternoon. No precipitation
is expected through the period.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- High Confidence in No Precipitation Through the Period,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 515 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1). Increasingly unsettled weather pattern evolves through the
period.

2). Precipitation chances increase through the period, but
confidence in timing is low.

Upper and surface ridging over the weekend will give way to a
flatter zonal flow. A series of disturbances embedded within
this increasingly zonal flow will impinge upon an increasingly
unstable air mass. The Gulf will become wide open as well during
this time frame. Conditions will become much more favorable for
showers and thunderstorms through the period. While there are no
major synoptic systems slated to cross the area during this time
frame, diurnal convection will definitely be on the upswing.
However confidence in timing and amounts of precipitation is low
at this point. The models have trended slower with the moisture
and disturbances reaching the forecast area, so have favored
lower pops a category or so during the first half of the
extended period at least. Western areas will definitely have
the best chance for precipitation through the period, with
eastern chances the least. Overall QPF looks to be low at this
point.

Temperatures will gradually return closer to normal, especially
high temperatures with lows mostly in the 50s and high
temperatures generally in the 70s mountains to lower and mid 80s
elsewhere.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

MVFR across the mountains and VFR east of the mountains this
morning. Upslope clouds will continue to bring BKN/SCT 1kft to
3kft cigs for another few hours. Should see upslope clouds
dissipate late morning and all terminals are expected to remain
VFR through the 24 hour TAF period.

Winds tonight will be light/calm with high pressure building
overhead.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon
through Monday but low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG