-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
730
FXUS61 KRNK 280652
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
252 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A series of upper disturbances will pass across Tuesday into
Wednesday but overall mainly dry and less humid weather is
expected.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Mainly dry and pleasant conditions with isolated chance for
showers or storms in the far western mountains.

Early this morning there is a cluster of showers pushing into
the far SWERN CWA perhaps associated with a weak low level wave.
This should diminish here in the next few hours or so. Expect
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies for the vast majority of the
area today as we mainly stay in a drier post frontal airmass
though still east of the broad upper trough axis. A weak
amplification and perturbation traversing the flow may allow for
isolated convection in the far northern mountains for the
afternoon. Will need to monitor how some of the CAM guidance
trends as the Nam nest looks to be an outlier with an area of
perhaps more organized convection propagating into more of the
mountains this evening, though quickly diminishing in
coverage/intensity.

Max temps today look to mostly range from the upper 60s to mid
70s in the mountains and low to mid 80s in the Piedmont.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. A few upslope showers and isolated storms possible
Wednesday afternoon.

Little change was made to the mid-range forecast as there is
high confidence in the middle of the week will be calm with a
cooling trend.

From the previous discussion...

The medium range models are in good agreement keeping the
eastern U.S. under the influence of an upper level trof that is
reinforced on Wednesday by an upper level system pushing south
of the western Great Lakes.

The 27/00Z SREF does show modest probabilities of SBCAPES
exceeding 500 j/kg in central WV, as an upper level cool pool
moves over the area, so an isolated storm cannot be ruled out on
Tuesday in southeast WV. Widely scattered showers and perhaps
an isolated storm is also possible Wednesday afternoon mainly in
southeast WV, but most areas will remain dry with temperatures
close to normal on Wednesday with temperatures expected to be a
few degrees cooler on Wednesday.

Generally followed the NBM guidance for temperatures during this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1). Generally benign weather for the later half of the week into the
weekend.

2). Unseasonably cool through much of the period.

3). Little to no rainfall for the Piedmont through the period.
Light showers possible across the western mountains.

The last week of May right into the first week of June will be
dominated by cyclonic northwest flow around a deep upper low
anchored over the eastern Great Lakes. This low pressure area will
only very slowly drift east toward NY/New England through the week
into the weekend, still influencing the weather across the eastern
U.S. over the weekend.

The Thu-Sat time period will be largely dry. There is little if
any support for precipitation during this time frame. A surface
high takes over by late Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic, and going
into the weekend, an upper ridge begins to tighten and intensify
over the area. This will allow a short wave to traverse the
Midwest/OH/TN valley reaching our area by the weekend. However,
there is considerable disagreement among the various models as
to when and how this system will impact the region. Have kept
PoPs under 25% for the most part through the weekend.

850mb temperatures will drop from the early double-digit readings in
the low to mid teens deg. C to around +5C to +8C through much of the
later half of the week. Temperatures will be on the cool side for
late May/early June, only reaching the 60s across the higher terrain
west of the Blue Ridge until the weekend, when lower to mid 70s will
return. These readings are 5-10 degrees below normal. Nights will be
chilly with lows in the 40s west and 50s east. A few spots such as
Burkes Garden and Quinwood could see the upper 30s Friday morning
behind a secondary surge of cold air rotating around the upper low.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions through period though some MVFR cigs could
flirt with KBLF and KLWB soon early this morning. Otherwise
expect FEW/SCT cu field near 4-5 kft today into this evening.
Could have some alto coverage by this evening also. Some
isolated SHRA/TSRA possible mainly this afternoon near KLWB but
chance not high enough to include in TAF. Winds generally light
out of the west this morning, increasing to 7-11 kts during the
day (gusts near 18-20 kts for KBLF and KLWB), then light west to
calm this evening into tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR Tuesday night through much of the week. There is a low
chance for showers and thunderstorms across WV Wednesday.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PH/VFJ
LONG TERM...RAB/VFJ
AVIATION...AB/WP