Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
880 FXAK67 PAJK 171436 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 636 AM AKDT Fri May 17 2024 .SHORT TERM...Fairly quiet weather continues, with drier conditions for much of the area expected although the occasional rain shower is possible from the Icy Strait Corridor southward on Friday, especially for the southern panhandle. As of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery depict a marine layer in the outer coastal waters along with a stratus deck which developed through the evening and overnight hours. Further offshore, a weak system is moving towards the panhandle. Though this system will stay primarily off the coast, it will provide sufficient onshore flow to support chances of precip, though still expect significant breaks in the clouds for many locations, especially the northern half of the area. The system will briefly displace the weak ridge that began to build over the area on Thursday, but expect the ridge to begin rebuilding to some extent on Saturday, bringing with it another period of drier weather through Saturday before a low moves across the gulf and enters SE AK on Sunday. Winds near ocean entrances, Lynn Canal, and for some southern inner channels will remain elevated through much of the day and so increased winds for these locations. Chances of PoP were diminished across the central panhandle, though the occasional rain shower cannot be ruled out. THe forecast in general remains largely on track. .LONG TERM.../ Saturday through Thursday / Incoming frontal band, pushes ridge axis through Southeast Alaska Saturday. The front then moves into the eastern Gulf and panhandle Sunday. Winds ahead of the front will be near gale force and near small craft into the inner channels on Sunday. Will be watching for the amount of QPF, at present, it is not looking enough to threaten flooding. A large high amplitude ridge builds over the central gulf Monday into Tuesday this will assist in moving the late weekend system and push the rain into Canada. Expect to see clearing conditions through Tuesday. Into mid next week drying continues with the ridge hanging around in the eastern gulf and the panhandle. Mid next week is also looking to be rather warm as southerly flow starts to build ahead of a new front in the gulf. Highs may reach into the 60s over a wide area. Wednesday has the possibility of being the warmest day of the week. && .AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/...Primarily VFR category CIG and VIS flight conditions through the 24-hour TAF period with some MVFR conditions this morning along the Outer Coast and the Icy Strait corridor due to a marine layer that has built-in. SFC winds and LLWS values remain benign through the period. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau