592
FXUS61 KAKQ 271744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region later this evening into tonight.
Additional rounds of showers and storms will occur today into
tonight, with potential severe weather. An upper trough brings
cooler and comfortable weather for the mid to late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- There continues to be a threat of severe weather through this
  evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are
  possible.

****Severe weather expected today through this evening with all
 modes of severe possible. Those with outdoor plans today should
 closely monitor the weather for warnings as multiple rounds of
 strong to severe storms could occur.****

The setup for today remains complicated and heavily dependent
on how much destabilization we see this afternoon after the
current round of convection. The activity this morning has been
fairly benign thus far (as would be expected with fairly low
instability across the area). Heavy rain, frequent lighting, and
the potential for gusty winds will be the main threats through
this morning. Starting to key in a bit more on eastern and
southeastern portions of the area for our best severe weather
threats this afternoon-evening, where more clearing has been
seen this morning. Widespread cloud cover and rain showers
may be a limiting factor for severe weather across western
portions of the area this afternoon. It should be noted however
that SPC has maintained a slight (2 out of 5) risk for the
entire forecast area as of the 13z update.

Previous Discussion: The broad weather pattern will be
characterized by an approaching mid-level shortwave and
increasing flow aloft. Several subtle impulses will slide
eastward through the area today, with another expected to cross
the area later this morning into the early afternoon hours. This
next round could pose a threat of isolated wind damage, heavy
rain, and lightning, though it will be moving into an already
fairly worked over environment. The impact of the activity on
later this afternoon into this evening redevelopment is the main
question. While there could be a good degree of stabilization
from this early convection, most guidance still insists on
robust airmass recovery, especially across southeastern portions
of the forecast area, with MLCAPE building to 1500+ J/kg. A few
models even show values of 2000-3000 J/kg, which would support
extremely strong updrafts. Effective shear values will be very
supportive for severe weather with 35-50 kts across most of the
area. Therefore, afternoon redevelopment seems like a good bet
and all modes of severe will be possible. The large hail threat
is supported by mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, highest
across the S and SE. With southerly sfc winds and SW winds
aloft, there is also some directional shear supportive of a non-
zero tornado threat. Forecast soundings show 150-200 m2/s2 of
0-1km SRH and favorably curved hodographs, again highest across
the S/SE. SPC has the entire fcst area in a Slight Risk for
today, and a 5% tornado threat for most of our CWA.

Highs were lowered slightly due to the widespread cloud cover
this morning, with highs generally in the mid 80s (lower 80s
across the Eastern Shore and closer to the coast). A cold front
will push across the region this evening into early Tuesday
morning, with rain chances ending from WNW to ESE. Lows tonight
will range through the 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Quieter Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms across
the north Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Much quieter Tue, with a lingering shower or storm across the
far SE. Highs in the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.
Upper troughing situates over the eastern CONUS for Tue night
through Wed night. On Wed, a potent shortwave will dive SE and
move through nrn portions of the area. This is expected to bring
an increase in cloud cover and isolated to sctd showers, mainly
N and E of the I-64 corridor and esply on the MD Eastern Shore.
Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of some modest
CAPE in the aftn, so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder
as well. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler
Wed night with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near
60/lower 60s for the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week.

Another shortwave within the larger longwave trough pivots toward
the area later Thu into Fri. However, drier air will work against
any pcpn chances. Still could see increases in cloud cover in the
aftn during peak heating. However, with the drier air and lower
heights aloft, temps will trend back into the 70s with dew points
in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it will feel much more comfortable.
High pressure builds down from the Great Lakes to end the week
and start the weekend favoring a continuation of the dry and
comfortable wx. High temps should begin to inch up some, as
ridging begins to build across the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows
through the extended will be in the 50s to near 60 at the
immediate coast. A few upper 40s are possible Thu and Fri night
across the far NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at SBY and ECG to start
off the TAF period, bringing periods of sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs.
Showers and storms may also try to clip ORF ~18-19z, but less
certainty here. Otherwise, generally VFR CIGs elsewhere outside
of some local MVFR CIGs at RIC. Another round of showers and
storms will develop around or shortly after 21z, bringing
another potential for sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs at all sites
(highest confidence ORF and ECG). A few of these storms may be
strong to severe with strong wind gusts being the primary
threat. Shower/storm chances come to an end from NW to SE later
this evening (lingering the longest at ECG), with all sites
drying out after 03z as a cold front crosses the region. Cannot
rule out some patchy fog or ground fog at the typical locations
(PHF and ECG) from ~05z to 09z, but overall confidence is low.
VFR/dry conditions return later tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR/mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday. However,
SBY may receive a shower or storm Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Chances for some lingering showers early this morning, with
  more widespread showers reaching the waters by late morning
  into the early afternoon.

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by late this
  afternoon into tonight across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal
  waters due to increasing winds and building seas.

Latest analysis reveals a warm front now well north of the local
waters. Winds are S/SE 10-15 kt, seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft
(less than 1 ft in the upper rivers). A cold front approaches
the area late today, associated with a deepening low pressure
center over the Great Lakes. Winds increase this afternoon as
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the system. Winds gust to
~20 kt (25 kt over the open ocean this afternoon), while E-SE
wind wave potentially pushes some 5 footers across northern and
central coastal zones this evening. A convective system will
approach the area by mid to late morning, and may prompt some
Marine Warnings. Some additional storms will be possible with
the frontal passage itself as it pushes into the area this
evening.

The front still looks to slow down or stall over the waters
Monday night before getting pushed through the region Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Winds veer around to the NW behind the front
on Tuesday night through midweek. A second, reinforcing shot of
cooler and drier air could bring another period of stronger
northerly winds late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Moderate Rip Risk for northern beaches today with building seas
and more of a shore normal component to wave energy. Will keep
low risk for tomorrow for now, but will need to watch progress
of the front. If it is indeed a bit slower, winds could briefly
turn southerly tomorrow afternoon across the eastern shore
beaches. If this occurs, a Moderate Rip Risk may be needed over
northern portions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/MAM