Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 302352
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Skinny RX Burn...Maryland Forest Service
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
752 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on May 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds out of the northwest are expected tonight. A north
wind of 5 to 10 mph is expected on Friday under sunny skies. RH
values are expected to drop to between 30 and 35 percent by the
afternoon. RH values will drop to 30-35 percent again on Saturday
with lighter winds.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  14  11  8   8   7   7   5   4   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  64  62  60  60  59  58  57  55  54
RH..............50  56  62  67  64  67  67  67  72  71
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.8   7   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   6   5   5   5   6   7   8
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (68700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 84 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   1   1   2   3   4   12  20  27  28  28  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  55  57  60  64  67  70  71  73  73  75  74
RH..............77  74  72  62  52  45  39  38  35  35  33  34
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   7   8   8   7   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.8   9   11  12  13  14  14  13  13  11  11  9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.9 1.1 2.5 3.9 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  10
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............4   13  19  40  57  69  74  80  84  82  78  79
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   9   12  28  41  52  58  63  69  66  62  57
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 9 mph shifting to the west 5 to
                    6 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................50 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........21     8      4      2      2      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............72     67     61     58     56     55
RH..............38     49     62     69     74     77
20 ft wind......N 4    W 2    SW 2   SW 1   W 2    W 2
20 ft wind gust.7      5      3      3      3      3
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   500    400    300    300    300
Transport wind..NW 9   NW 6   W 5    W 5    W 5    W 5
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      3      4
ADI.............50     3      2      2      2      2
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35     3      2      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then becoming light early
                    in the afternoon becoming north around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon shifting to the southeast
                    5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (46400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 66 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........2            3            10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............53           67           78
RH..............89           56           36
20 FT wind......NW 2G3       NW 4G6       N 4G8
Mix hgt (ft)....500          3900         6300
Transport wind..W 8          NW 12        W 8
LVORI...........6            1            1
ADI.............4            56           61
Haines index....4            4            5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4            38           44
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         FAIR

$$
Forecaster...IYER
Requested by...Lance S Carroll
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415382.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Lance.Carroll@maryland.gov