683
FXUS61 KALY 230302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1102 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be hot and a little muggy with some afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow, a cold front will
usher in cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but will be
accompanied by some additional showers and thunderstorms
especially along the Interstate 84 corridor. Temperatures will
remain above normal with several chances for showers through the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
.UPDATE...As of 1100 PM EDT, A few additional showers have moved
into Ulster County and some others remain to the west of
Herkimer County at this time. Scattered showers are expected to
continue tonight mainly north of Albany once those in the Mid-
Hudson Valley move out. Kept slight chance of thunder in the
forecast overnight for embedded rumbles of showers due to some
minor instability remaining over the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain very mild tonight with high dewpoints making
conditions rather humid. In fact, our current low temperature
forecast of mid to upper 60s (and mid to upper 50s in the
Southwest Adirondacks and portions of the Catskills) flirts with
the record high minimum temperatures at several of our ASOS
stations for tonight.

Made minor adjustments to cloud cover, PoPs and temperatures
with this update. Forecast otherwise remains on track; see
previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0425 PM EDT]...A very warm afternoon is in
progress with scattered cumulus clouds across the area. A pre-
frontal trough has sparked scattered showers and thunderstorms
west of the area, mainly across Central and Western NY. As this
trough moves eastward towards Eastern NY, there will be an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as we approach
evening. The best dynamics for severe thunderstorms will be west
of the area, especially since by the time these showers and
storms reach the vicinity of the Capital Region and Hudson
Valley, it will be approaching or after sunset with waning
instability. Shear is lacking as well. That being said, cannot
rule out a few stronger storms with gusty winds due to steep
low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air. Most of Eastern NY
remains in a "Marginal Risk" for Severe Thunderstorms in SPC`s
Day 1 Outlook.

While the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will
diminish as the night progresses, there will still be some
lingering showers around overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy
skies are expected with lows in the 60s.

By daybreak Thursday, the cold front will be situated just south
of the Capital Region and through the Hudson Valley and it will
be slowly pushing to the southeast. Morning and early afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
just ahead of the front especially south of the Capital Region.
Modest instability (greater than 1500 J/kg) and more favorable
shear (greater than 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear) will result in
some of these thunderstorms becoming strong to severe. The best
chance for this will be further ahead of the front across our
far southeastern areas across the mid-Hudson Valley to
northwestern Connecticut. Locally damaging winds and/or hail
will be possible in these storms. Elsewhere, a general drying
trend will be present with partly sunny skies. Highs Thursday
will range from the 70s in the high terrain areas to mid to
upper 80s along the I-84 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 PM Update:

Cannot rule out a few isolated showers or thunderstorms early in
the evening Thursday across the mid-Hudson Valley to
northwestern Connecticut, but otherwise dry conditions are
expected Thursday night with partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. Lows are expected to be in the 50s to near 60.

Friday will be a mainly sunny day as high pressure will be in
control. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but with
lower dewpoints (mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s), it will feel
a lot more comfortable outside. The dry weather continues Friday
night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 PM Update:

An upper level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to
northeast on Saturday as a surface warm front also approaches. Some
showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s.

The associated cold front looks to cross the region on Sunday
as weak upper ridging builds overhead. This should result in a
drier day, but a few showers could still occur along the front.
Highs Sunday will be in the lower 80s along the Hudson Valley
and the 70s to around 80 elsewhere.

A complex upper level pattern looks to set up for early next week
with multiple pieces of upper-level energy rotating around one
another. Eventually, an upper level trough or upper level low looks
to form over the region. Another surface low pressure system
approaches from the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes and brings additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread than
over the weekend. The extra clouds and greater coverage of
precipitation may hold temperatures into the 60s and 70s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions largely expected to prevail at
all terminals through the TAF period. A region of weakening showers
will track across the region between roughly 03-09Z Thu. Some of
these showers are currently producing lightning from the Adirondacks
south into PA, but expectations are that lightning will diminish
while areal coverage of showers also decreases, leaving impacts to
flying conditions unlikely but possible overnight. Behind departing
showers, areas of fog/mist may develop, especially if any rainfall
accumulates beforehand.

A cold front will sag southward across the region Thursday morning,
bringing another potential round of showers and thundershowers from
the late morning into the early afternoon, with reduced vsbys more
likely to the south at POU and possibly ALB/PSF. Confidence is low
on thunderstorm occurrence and timing, but brief IFR vsbys are
possible within more intense thundershowers. Showers and storms end
by 18-21Z Thu, with a return to VFR conditions expected across the
region.

South winds at 6-10 kt will diminish to 5 kt or less overnight, with
occasional gusts of 15-20 kt possible at PSF through 03-04Z Thu.
Winds increase out of the southwest at 5-10 kt after 12Z Thu, before
turning out of the west to northwest at 5-10 kt behind the cold
frontal passage after 12-18Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...Gant/Picard
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...Picard