Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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321 FXUS64 KAMA 290824 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 324 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The daily chances for showers and thunderstorms looks to continue both today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Both days have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. High temperatures should remain below average both today and tomorrow. Rain showers and thunderstorms continue south of the forecast area this morning. The chance for additional development appears low this morning, but cannot completely rule out a few showers or storms. Otherwise, low clouds will move in near sunrise. The aforementioned cloud cover may remain across portions of the area through most of the day today. This will inhibit surface heating today and highs are forecast to only warm up into the 70s for most areas. Given the lack of heating, showers and storms are unlikely to form during the daytime hours. A few CAMs still hint at this potential, so have kept in some low PoPs during the late afternoon into early evening hours. The best chance at seeing precipitation today will likely wait until the evening hours at the earliest as a shortwave trough moves across the Southern High Plains. Showers and storms could linger through the night as a potential line of storms moves across portions of the area. Model guidance does hint at elevated instability so storms could be strong to severe, with the primary threat being large hail initially but would likely become a wind threat if a line of storms does form. Model guidance varies on the coverage and intensity of any potential storms, so refinements are likely later on today. Showers and storms may continue into Thursday morning from convection the night before. If convection remains across the area well into the morning hours or potentially into the afternoon, that could limit shower and storm coverage on Thursday. There is another disturbance in the flow that should be enough to kick off another round of storms during the afternoon into the evening. These storms will once again have the potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds continuing to be the primary hazards. PWAT values up around an inch or greater will also lead to heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding. Thursday has higher confidence in severe storms than there is today, but there are still some failure modes that will need to be monitored. Slightly stronger WAA combined with some clearing cloud cover on Thursday across the west should allow for temperatures to warm up into the 80s for highs during the afternoon hours before any thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through Monday as several upper level disturbances move through the flow and combine with the low level moisture to help produce the showers and storms. Again, the devil will be in the details on how much coverage of rain the Panhandles will get from day to day. Some of the storms will be severe through this period. At this time, it looks like Saturday and Monday may have the better potential to see severe weather given the extra convergence along the dryline and better potential instability. Highs are expected to warm through the period from mainly 70`s on Friday to mainly 90`s on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to start this TAF cycle. Some gusty winds may continue for a few hours but they should decrease to 15 kts or less in a few hours. Low clouds will move in at the TAF sites near 12z through around 18z and MVFR ceilings are forecast. Winds during the daytime hours will be out of the southeast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the terminals late in this TAF cycle, but confidence is not high enough to mention at this time. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 76 61 83 58 / 20 30 40 70 Beaver OK 81 61 82 57 / 10 50 70 80 Boise City OK 77 57 83 54 / 30 50 70 60 Borger TX 81 63 87 59 / 20 30 60 80 Boys Ranch TX 79 61 88 58 / 20 40 50 70 Canyon TX 76 60 83 57 / 20 30 40 70 Clarendon TX 74 61 80 58 / 20 50 60 80 Dalhart TX 77 57 85 54 / 30 40 50 60 Guymon OK 79 59 83 55 / 10 40 70 70 Hereford TX 79 61 89 57 / 20 30 30 60 Lipscomb TX 79 61 80 58 / 20 50 70 90 Pampa TX 77 61 82 58 / 20 40 60 80 Shamrock TX 77 61 80 58 / 20 50 60 80 Wellington TX 78 62 81 60 / 20 50 60 80 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...05