Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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098 FXUS64 KAMA 270539 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1239 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. However behind the scenes, models are expecting a stationary low to slowly set up just to our west with a stationary high building over the Gulf Coast. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the Panhandles. This is where weather could become interesting as many of the CAMs are expecting this flow shift to occur early enough that we may be able convect and create weak isolated thunderstorms for Monday evening. Confidence in this potential isn`t the best with the southeast Panhandles having the best chances at 15 to 20%. Regardless, expect for chances to get better in the overnight as the above mentioned set up looks to stick around and funnel more moisture up into the Panhandles. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to grown for Panhandles this week as models continue to see the week ridge hold a surface low just to our west for the midweek. This low will work in tandem with a stagnate high pressure system off the Gulf Coast creating southerly/southeasterly flow across this Panhandles. This flow will in turn push good moisture across the Panhandles in the lower levels with many models also see moisture advect in at the mid level with the 700mb theata-e. As it stands, many models are expecting PWAT values to rise near or above one inch starting Tuesday and stay there clear through Thursday. With the moisture in places over the Panhandle, many models expect the incoming short-waves to move through and take advantage of said moisture by producing thunderstorms and showers each day. Tuesday and Thursday in particular, look to be our big days with many of the models already seeing the strongest short-wave disturbance those afternoons, which will increase the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandles. Of course, there is some day to day features that may serve to inhibit or enhance the potential, such as linger thunderstorms and showers overnight or even stubborn low-level stratus decks holding for the day. Regardless, decent accumulation looks to be possible across the Panhandles with latest giving a 40% chance at bare minimum of seeing greater than half an inch or rain by Friday. Unfortunately, this set up looks to break down Thursday evening as models see the southern axis of a trough push through and break down the stagnate low. Residual moisture will hang around through the weekend, but expect much lower chances for showers and storms with temperatures beginning to warm back towards the 90s. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light east to southeast winds will prevail through the early morning hours. Winds will pick up some into the 10 to 15 knot range as they remain southeast during the day. Winds will then back again to the east and southeast this evening, but will remain around 10 knots. Skies are expected to remain VFR. There may be a stray shower or thunderstorm that affects the GUY TAF site late in this forecast, but confidence is too low to mention it in the forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 91 61 86 58 / 0 10 50 60 Beaver OK 90 57 85 57 / 0 20 40 60 Boise City OK 86 54 83 54 / 0 10 50 60 Borger TX 94 62 90 60 / 0 10 50 60 Boys Ranch TX 93 60 90 58 / 0 10 50 60 Canyon TX 92 60 87 57 / 0 10 50 60 Clarendon TX 90 62 85 59 / 0 10 60 70 Dalhart TX 88 55 85 55 / 0 10 50 50 Guymon OK 89 55 85 55 / 0 20 50 70 Hereford TX 94 60 89 57 / 0 10 40 60 Lipscomb TX 90 59 84 59 / 0 20 40 60 Pampa TX 91 61 84 58 / 0 10 60 70 Shamrock TX 92 62 85 59 / 0 20 60 70 Wellington TX 93 63 86 60 / 0 20 60 70 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...15