848
FXUS63 KAPX 021836
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog likely tonight across northeast lower Michigan.

- Chances for showers/storms at times late Monday through Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather continues
  late this week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure settles overhead tonight and slides just to the east
into early Monday, setting the stage for fog development across
northeast lower. This feature will move east of the region into
Monday as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Pressure
gradient will tighten some as high pressure is displaced with
lower pressures and thus a few southerly mild breezes and warm
temperatures anticipated. Showers will be on the increase due to
the approaching short wave.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

High pressure builds into the region tonight resulting in calm to a
slight southeast wind into early Monday. With clearing skies and
temperatures likely dropping near or around saturation, fog looks
like a good bet across portions of the area, especially
northeast lower Michigan. Very light/slight southeast flow
coupled with the higher terrain of interior northern lower looks
to aid in fog development in a general area from Gladwin and
vicinity up towards Gaylord as well.

Energy aloft approaches Monday afternoon/evening with a modestly
moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the mid, perhaps
upper 50s. However, deeper moisture and an unstable airmass will
advect into the region but largely holds off until the overnight
hours and into Tuesday. Thus should be showers with potentially some
embedded thunder approaching the Lake Michigan open waters/coastal
regions by the late afternoon/evening, likely in decaying
fashion. Much of the actual precip should fall just beyond this
period, with details in the long term discussion below.
Temperatures soar into the lower 80s across inland locations,
about 10 degrees cooler near coastal sections of Lake Huron
thanks to low level east flow/lake breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Forecast: By early Monday night, a convectively enhanced mid-
level shortwave is expected to be trekking across northern Michigan.
More amplified shortwave troughing encroaches on the area late
Tuesday out ahead of closed upper level low pressure and attendant
surface reflection that are expected to drift from Manitoba into the
Great Lakes region late this week. Some signs over the last 24 hours
that perhaps this late week system isn`t quite as slow-moving/
stationary as previously thought, but none the less, still a rather
extended stretch of cool, cloudy and showery weather expected late
in the work week into the weekend.

Forecast Details: By Monday evening, upstream convection across WI
and the central U.P. likely to be making a run toward northern
Michigan, albeit in decaying fashion. Meager forcing and limited
instability expected locally with up to a few hundred J/kg of
elevated CAPE should limit overall thunderstorm coverage and
strength. Higher likelihood for stronger storms displaced to our
southwest tied to lower-level instability gradient. None the less,
an increase in PoPs seems reasonable locally with isolated to
scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Monday night into
Tuesday morning. High temps largely in the 80s across inland
northern lower on Monday...70s in the U.P. and near Lake Huron given
a southeast wind off Lake Huron. Likely stuck in the 60s at much of
the immediate Lake Huron shoreline.

Winds veer more southerly for Tuesday, aiding to increase deep
moisture across northern Michigan. This evident by PWs progged to
balloon to greater than 1.50" (potentially > 1.75") by late in the
day...some +1 to 2 SD above early June normals per NAEFS
climatology. While some scattered convection Tuesday afternoon is
possible in the presence of warm temperatures, mid-60s dew points,
steepening lapse rates and increasing instability, better chances
for more numerous showers arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of a cold front that`s progged to cross during the day
Wednesday. Worth monitoring timing of the frontal passage -- if
timing continues to slow, potential for strong to severe storms may
increase given a better shot of notable instability during the day
Wednesday combined with bulk shear values between 30-40 kts.

By Thursday, a secondary cold front is progged to cross the forecast
area during the day, aiding to reinforce much cooler temperatures as
vertically stacked low pressure meanders from southern Canada into
the Great Lakes region. This system will keep its effects felt
through much of the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 5-10
degrees below normal (coolest Friday-Saturday), lots of clouds,
breezy, and occasionally rainy periods. Almost an early fall type
end to the week/weekend rather than late spring/early summer.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SCT-BKN 007-015 still remains across northeast lower, while
elsewhere FEW-SCT020-050 primarily. Expect slow clearing to
continue from west to east this afternoon. Light and variable to
light southeast winds expected tonight, with FG development the
main concern. Highest confidence in KAPN seeing substantial FG,
and such reflected in the TAF with 1/2 mi VIS. Lesser
confidence across other TAF terminals. Patchy to areas of FG
also likely from Gladwin county up towards Otsego. FG clears out
during the late morning hours on Monday with otherwise dry
conditions most areas through this TAF cycle.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD