Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
781 FNUS53 KAPX 231856 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...Occasional Rain Chances Over the Next Several Days... .DISCUSSION...A fairly active weather pattern is expected through the forecast with various systems bringing occasional rain chances. Right now the best chances are Friday night into early Saturday and Sunday night into Monday. Perhaps more showers Tuesday as well. In between for Friday and Saturday, warm temperatures, breezy winds and minimum relative humidity of 30 to 35 percent will lead to near elevated fire weather conditions but the rain and greenup should lessen concerns. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-240815- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Min Temperature.....43-48. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 71-76 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (21). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph shifting to the north around 6 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........None. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Max Temperature.....77-82...except 62-67 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........29-34 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (479). Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the southeast around 9 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400, then rain showers. Min Temperature.....50-55. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........91-96 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (97). Mixing Height.......700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.22 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain showers. Max Temperature.....67-72...except 54-59 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 50-55 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (451). Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in . $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240815- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Min Temperature.....44-49. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 71-76 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (31). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Max Temperature.....73-78...except 54-59 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler near the coast. Min Humidity........31-36 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (216). Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast around 9 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400, then rain showers likely. Min Temperature.....49-54. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 83-88 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (61). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.11 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Rain showers likely until 1200, then chance of rain showers. Max Temperature.....70-75...except around 61 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Min Humidity........42-47 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (589). Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the northwest around 15 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in . $$ MIZ020-025>027-240815- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Min Temperature.....43-48...except around 50 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 72-77 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (26). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the north around 6 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........None. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Max Temperature.....78-83...except 59-64 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........30-35 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (711). Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around 12 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in . .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers likely until 2400Rain showers after 2400. Min Temperature.....51-56. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (119). Mixing Height.......800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.48 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain showers until 1200. Max Temperature.....65-70...except 54-59 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........44-49 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (350). Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in . $$ MIZ031>033-240815- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Min Temperature.....45-50. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 78-83 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (25). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Max Temperature.....79-84. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 9 degrees warmer near the coast. Min Humidity........28-33 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (937). Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around 15 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in . .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers. Min Temperature.....51-56. 24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (111). Mixing Height.......800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.46 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain showers until 1200. Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 49-54 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (443). Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in . $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240815- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 256 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Min Temperature.....45-50. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........86-91 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (30). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Max Temperature.....76-81. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Min Humidity........28-33 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (581). Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around 9 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400, then rain showers. Min Temperature.....52-57. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........91-96 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (73). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.17 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Max Temperature.....70-75. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........40-45 percent. 24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (620). Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in . $$ .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ AJS