Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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747 FXUS65 KBOU 261158 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 558 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Only isolated late day mountain showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with dry conditions over the rest of the forecast area. - Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday through Friday. A few severe storms are possible on the plains with the highest threat on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Large scale subsidence will take hold today as the passing trough axis shifts east and onto the Plains. This will put a halt to any rain/snow showers that may be lingering across the north and central mountains by late morning as conditions become increasingly drier. Cross sections show an amplified mountain wave signature that will be the culprit of enhanced winds for the foothills and adjacent plains through the day. Gusts of 40 - 45 mph are possible for the normal wind prone areas in the foothills of the Front Range mountains and Cheyenne Ridge. Aside from the winds, it looks like the forecast area is in store for another beautiful day as skies become increasingly clear throughout the day and mostly clear skies are expected overnight. Near normal temperatures are expected with ample sunshine to aid in daytime temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s across the plains and 50s and 60s for the mountains and foothills. With the lack of cloud cover overnight, temps will be a few degrees colder than Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Monday looks like a quiet day with light northeast winds keeping it stable and seasonal temperatures, just about perfect for holiday activities. There will probably still be some shallow weak convection creating clouds moving from the central mountains eastward in the afternoon and evening, but the chance of any rain will be pretty low. We lowered forecast lows Monday night a little below guidance with clearing skies and light winds. For Tuesday through Thursday, we`ll have the ridge axis passing with light southwest flow gradually increasing each day. At the surface winds will still be pretty light Tuesday but becoming southeasterly, with a bit more wind Wednesday and a developing surface low turning flow more easterly by Thursday. This will bring low level moisture into eastern Colorado. There may be a dry line on Wednesday, with the better moisture more likely to advect west to the Front Range on Thursday. We may just get barely warm enough for thunderstorms on Tuesday, then it will be warmer Wednesday and Thursday. The flow aloft will still be pretty weak Wednesday, but there may be enough CAPE for marginally severe hail in the better moisture. On Thursday, the ingredients look to be better and further west. For areas west of the Front Range, the southwest flow aloft will be advecting warm and dry air overhead so while it may be warm enough for a few storms the coverage and intensity should be low. There`s still a fair amount of discrepancy in the model ensembles for the behavior of the trough that`s northwest of us in the middle of the week, more spread the the last few operational runs would indicate. Some runs don`t have much of a trough at all or are slow enough that it doesn`t arrive until Saturday, while some are strong enough to stabilize us. The NBM is a reasonable compromise with 5-10 degrees of cooling and continued scattered thunderstorm activity as deeper moisture, QG lift and a little cooling aloft would offset the surface cooling in the intermediate solutions. Northwest flow behind the trough Saturday could bring drying, but there`s enough uncertainty to leave the NBM PoPs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/... Issued at 545 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR to prevail through the TAF period. Winds are beginning to transition to a W/NW component and will likely begin to increase through mid morning with a 20% chance of gusts surpassing 26 kts before decreasing around 01Z. Dry and stable air will keep any shower or storm development at bay for Sunday. Winds are expected to transition to a W/SW drainage overnight. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonner LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Bonner