284
FXUS61 KBOX 301755
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
155 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits this afternoon followed by improving
conditions during the afternoon from west to east. Drier
weather with plentiful sunshine for Friday. After a few days of
temperatures at or slightly cooler than normal, the weekend
into Monday offers a warming trend toward above normal
temperatures and still tolerable humidity levels. Drier weather
should generally prevail this weekend into at least Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM update...

Last of the comma head showers impacting NE MA will gradually
end during the next few hours. Partial clearing has developed
across western MA and CT and this will push eastward across
rest of SNE through late afternoon as drier air moves in from
the west. However, low risk for a pop-up shower in the west
later this afternoon as upper level trough approaches from the
west. Chilly afternoon in eastern MA with temps likely not
getting out of the 50s. Highs in the 60s further west, and
possibly 70 in portions of CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Highlights:

* Cooler tonight, followed by a beautiful Friday.

Mid-level trough moves off shore overnight, a rouge shower not out
of the question across the Cape and Island. That said, trend is
drying along with with clearing skies. Noticeably cooler
tonight with temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Coolest in NW
MA where the low drops into the lower 40s. Light north wind
overnight, chance that the winds decouple and we are slightly
cooler than forecast. With light winds and the rain from today,
areas or patchy radiational fog is not out of the question.

Mid-level ridging on Friday with surface high pressure will lead to
a wonderful day with sunny conditions and warm temperatures in the
70s. Guidance does hint towards a seabreeze along the coast, likely
keeping those communities a tad cooler.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points...

* Temperatures will be increasing steadily each day through
  early next week into the 80s.

* An extended stretch of mostly dry weather is expected through
  Wednesday but there is a chance for some scattered showers late
  Sunday then isolated showers each afternoon thereafter.

Details...

Quiet weather continues for the weekend and well into next week
thanks to a broad ridge of high pressure in the mid levels and high
pressure at the surface. This means mostly dry and sunny/partly
sunny conditions for the weekend and even through the middle of next
week. The one period to watch for the potential of some unsettled
weather would be later Sunday into Monday as global guidance shows a
weak shortwave dampening the ridge; however, some of the guidance
shows this being suppressed too far south to impact SNE so
confidence is low at this time that we`ll see any wet weather.
Ensemble guidance places the odds of measurable rainfall during this
period at 40-60% for western MA/CT and less further east. Either
way, not expecting a washout. As for Monday through Wednesday, each
day will feature the chance for a few diurnally driven showers in
the afternoon, especially away from the coasts but most should stay
dry.

Temperature-wise we`ll kick off the weekend seasonable to slightly
above seasonable for the start of June, with highs in the 70s to low
80s (CT valley). As the ridge builds in the airmass will continue to
warm each day into Monday when highs will reach into the mid 80s
inland and low to mid 70s along the coasts. This will continue to be
the case through mid week before our next shortwave approaches
bringing the chance for cooler temps and wet weather toward the end
of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points...

* Temperatures will be increasing steadily each day through
  early next week into the 80s.

* An extended stretch of mostly dry weather is expected through
  Wednesday but there is a chance for some scattered showers late
  Sunday then isolated showers each afternoon thereafter.

Details...

Quiet weather continues for the weekend and well into next week
thanks to a broad ridge of high pressure in the mid levels and high
pressure at the surface. This means mostly dry and sunny/partly
sunny conditions for the weekend and even through the middle of next
week. The one period to watch for the potential of some unsettled
weather would be later Sunday into Monday as global guidance shows a
weak shortwave dampening the ridge; however, some of the guidance
shows this being suppressed too far south to impact SNE so
confidence is low at this time that we`ll see any wet weather.
Ensemble guidance places the odds of measurable rainfall during this
period at 40-60% for western MA/CT and less further east. Either
way, not expecting a washout. As for Monday through Wednesday, each
day will feature the chance for a few diurnally driven showers in
the afternoon, especially away from the coasts but most should stay
dry.

Temperature-wise we`ll kick off the weekend seasonable to slightly
above seasonable for the start of June, with highs in the 70s to low
80s (CT valley). As the ridge builds in the airmass will continue to
warm each day into Monday when highs will reach into the mid 80s
inland and low to mid 70s along the coasts. This will continue to be
the case through mid week before our next shortwave approaches
bringing the chance for cooler temps and wet weather toward the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z...

Areas of MVFR cigs with IFR Cape/Islands will gradually improve
to VFR through the afternoon. Showers across NE MA will end by
20z. N wind gusts to 20-25 kt over Cape/Islands.

Tonight... High confidence.

Areas of MVFR outer Cape/Islands early, otherwise VFR. Light N
winds.

Friday and Friday night... High confidence.

VFR. NW 5-10 kt Fri but sea-breezes developing along the
immediate coast. Light wind Fri night.

KBOS TAF... High confidence. Brief MVFR cigs until 19-20z,
otherwise VFR. Sea-breeze develops around 15z Fri.

KBDL TAF... High confidence.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday...

Weak surface low pressure system brings widespread rain, at
times heavy this morning into early afternoon, a few lingering
showers are possible this evening, although the trend is to dry
things out. A period of gusty NNE wind this afternoon 20 to 24
knots and building seas to 3-5 ft along the eastern outer
waters. Have opt for a SCA for the outer eastern waters this
afternoon into early evening for marginal seas.

Dry with light northwest winds on Friday morning, wind becomes
southwest later in the day less than 15 knots. Seas 3 ft or
less.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231-
     232-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...KJC/BW