193
FXUS64 KBRO 311933
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveals a few lingering
showers after a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms tracked
southeast toward the Gulf waters earlier this morning. While only a
few areas across Brooks and Kenedy counties received some rainfall,
cloud cover associated with the activity over the rest of the region
has helped with the heat ever so slightly. Still, as these clouds
clear and temperatures rise through the afternoon, portions of the
region will still realize heat indices in the 110-112 degree range.
A Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 7 PM this evening for
portions of the region to account for heat indices in the 111-112
degree range.

There`s another potential for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late this evening as convection develops off of the
Sierra Madre Mountains. Most PoPs are confined to mainly the Rio
Grande Plains, but could potential spread as far east as US-281.
Most guidance isn`t to hopeful on this potential as the mid/upper
level ridge maintains its influence over Deep South Texas, but a
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. We`ll need to keep an eye
on remnant outflow boundaries over the Northern Ranchlands, as
additional showers and thunderstorms may attempt to develop.
Otherwise, low clouds will develop late this evening and yield a
mild and humid night with lows in the upper 70s and low 80s.

The start of hurricane season is tomorrow, June 1st, and will
feature above normal temperatures (around 3 to 5 degrees) for early
June and little to no rain chances as Deep South Texas remains along
the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper level ridge. Meanwhile,
persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will continue
to transport Gulf moisture and yield elevated dew points and
humidity through the short term period. Heat indices will range from
108 to 114 degrees tomorrow afternoon, and a Heat Advisory may be
needed once again for portions of Deep South Texas. Breezy southeast
winds should temper the heat slightly, but anyone spending time
outside should continue to practice heat safety to prevent heat-
related illnesses. Similar to Friday night, low temperatures will
fall into the upper 70s and low 80s with stratus clouds developing
once again.

Otherwise, the enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas
Coast will result in increased winds along the Lower Texas beaches,
and will result in building seas. This will result in a High Risk
for rip currents tonight into Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The 500mb ridge of high pressure builds through the long term,
continuing to bake Deep South Texas, as a persistent and potent
trough continues much cooler weather across the Great Lakes and
Northeast. The chance of rain remains below 15 percent through the
long term, with a very outside chance of Sierra Madre convection
Monday evening or Monday night as a weak mid-level disturbance
flares up. Otherwise, expect heat to increase and breezy winds
Sunday into Monday to dissipate and drop off to light or nearly
calm by the end of the week. Overnight lows remain generally in
the 80s across the Rio Grande Valley, offering very little recovery
from conditions. Heat Advisories will likely be needed each
afternoon, increasing in coverage and length through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Radar and satellite imagery depict partly to mostly cloudy skies
and a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms approaching from
the mid Texas coast. SCT to BKN VFR ceilings will prevail through
the afternoon hours, with MVFR ceilings building in after 01-04Z
from east to west tonight. Low ceilings will persist through
around 12-14Z Saturday. Otherwise, breezy southeast winds with
speeds around 10-18 knots and gusts up to 30-33 knots will prevail
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Now through Saturday night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through 7 PM for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters due to increased
winds and building seas. An enhanced pressure gradient along the
Lower Texas coast will maintain moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds and moderate seas through Saturday night. Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed through the
period as winds remain elevated, but just below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Sunday through Friday...Breezy southeasterly winds will maintain
elevated seas and Small Craft Caution to potentially Small Craft
Advisory conditions across the coastal waters, especially the
nearshore Gulf and Laguna Madre into Tuesday. As high pressure
builds through the week, expect winds to gradually diminish,
allowing seas to subside into late week, with generally favorable
marine conditions returning to the lower Texas coast into next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  96  81  95 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               80  98  80  97 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 81  99  81 100 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         80 101  80 101 /  20   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  87  82  87 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  93  80  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>254-353.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through
     Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...22