211
FXCA20 KWBC 311819
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 31 MAY 2024 AT 1820 UTC:

A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO AND EXTENDS EAST INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS THE PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT IS ALSO
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT AND REORGANIZATION OF UPPER TROUGHS IN
AREAS TO THE EAST OR IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY
THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE DUE TO RAMPING-UP TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY.

NORTH IN THE BASIN...A LATE-SEASON SURFACE FRONT IS PRESENT. THE
TAIL OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...WHERE LIMITED PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WHERE A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SQUALLY WEATHER. IN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA
EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ALSO ON FRIDAY...DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND A PANAMANIAN LOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO
FAVOR WET CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN COSTA RICA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
SATURDAY... EXPECT THE ACTIVATION OF FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL CUBA...INCLUDING A CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERITY. ALSO ON SATURDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
START LOSING DEFINITION WHILE PROPAGATING ACROSS JAMAICA INTO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND CONSEQUENT INCREASE IN MAXIMA TO 20-35MM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...NORTHWEST JAMAICA AND NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.
IN EASTERN JAMAICA...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON SUNDAY...MODELS START DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY ON
THE POTENTIAL LOCATIONS PRONE TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST REASONING CONSISTS OF A BLEND THAT FAVORS MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS DUE TO MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN JAMAIOCA. IN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN HISPANIOLA...ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
NORTHEAST PORTIONS.

ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY...AND CROSS THE VI AND PUERTO RICO ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE WITH
THE ITCZ/NET AND TROPICAL WAVES. ON FRIDAY...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND ENHANCEMENT BY THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM WESTERN FRENCH GUIANA
INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXI8MA
OF 20-45MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN GUYANA/SOUTHERN
SURINAME AND SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. ON SUNDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM
IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. IN CENTRAL AND NROTHERN
COLOMBIA...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.

GALVEZ (WPC)
CLARKE (CINWS)
























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