180
FXUS62 KCAE 300553
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
153 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will build into the region this week keeping
skies mostly sunny and temperatures cooler than days past.
Moisture will increase over the Southeast this weekend resulting
in mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early
next week. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below
normal into the weekend then a warming early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very little to say about the weather today other than that it is
expected to be absolutely beautiful. High pressure will continue
to slowly shift into the eastern US, with our FA remaining on
the southern side of the high pressure system. PWs are 30-50% of
normal across the area which is helping to keep us drier than
normal. Bumped highs this afternoon up a degree or two given the
amount of sunshine. High pressure will remain to our north
tonight but given the dry air in place, temps should radiate
into the mid 50s for lows!

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry NW
flow over the area through the short term. At the surface, high
pressure will move from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states
ushering in dry air and cooler temperatures. Atmospheric
moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT
values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will be in the low to mid 80s, a few degrees below normal.
Friday night should be the coolest night with surface high
pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic states. Radiational
cooling under mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to
fall into the 50s for many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Global ensembles are in general agreement for the long term
showing the axis of an upper level trough moving offshore this
weekend. This will allow surface high pressure to also move
offshore ushering in southerly flow and increasing moisture
beginning Saturday night or Sunday. PWAT values will rise back
to normal by Sunday morning with near or above normal values
(1.4 to 1.8) likely for the remainder of the long term. In
general, ensembles favor zonal flow or weak ridging for Sunday
through early next week. This setup typically favors shortwave
troughs periodically moving across the area. Overall, near or
above normal atmospheric moisture with shortwave activity favors
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in
the afternoon to evening. At this time, there appears to be no
prominent surface features or strong shortwaves that would
support widespread rainfall. With southerly flow developing late
this weekend and possible ridging early next week, temperatures
should rise to near or above normal for the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period.

High pressure ridging over the area with some high clouds
passing over the terminals. Dry air is in place and will only
get drier through the day, keeping precipitation and any lower
clouds completely at bay. So really this is just a wind
forecast, with winds picking up out of the north by mid-morning
and relaxing a bit after sunset tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...