437
FXUS61 KCLE 271925
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit east of the area this evening. Another
cold front will move across the area on Tuesday. High pressure
will build from the northwest, starting on Wednesday and become
centered over the Great Lakes for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front stretches from Cleveland to Mount Gilead and will
push east through the afternoon hours and out of the forecast
area by this evening. Some showers and an isolated storm or two
are developing ahead of the front in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest PA and will be a short term threat for brief heavy
rain and perhaps a stronger wind gust. With the strong wind
field in place across the region, it may not be that difficult
to get a quick burst of wind with these small showers and
storms. Otherwise, there will be wind gusts to 40-45 mph through
this evening with the cold front as some stronger synoptic
winds are being brought to the surface. Behind the front, low
clouds will enter the region as the surface low occludes and
moves northeast into Canada. Overall, the area should be dry
tonight behind the frontal passage, but some weak convergence
and residual moisture into NW PA may allow for some minor rain
chances.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, an upper trough will dig into the
Great Lakes region with a pair of shortwaves that will ripple
through the trough and enhance the flow. Another cold front will
move through the area on Tuesday with the upper trough and
scattered rain showers and perhaps some marginal thunder will be
possible on Tuesday. PoPs are fairly generic on Tuesday with
both the scattered nature of showers and not much to key in on
for specific timing at this time. Have PoPs increasing to likely
on Tuesday night with the main trough axis and cold front
pushing through, which should allow for a window that is more
favorable for rain. Temperatures through the period will be
cooler than normal with clouds and several shots of rain
preventing much heating with a cold air advection pattern. Lows
will be in the 50s tonight and Tuesday night and highs on
Tuesday will likely not reach 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another upper level wave of low pressure rotates through the Great
Lakes from the northwest with an accompanying surface low and cold
front Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. Tracking a main
band of low/mid level f-gen with this system moving through the
area. Not a ton of instability with this, but thunderstorms will be
possible, and only expecting general thunder at this time. Cold
front south of the CWA by 00Z Thursday. Another axis drops into the
area Wednesday night, but dry with mid/upper level drying in the
wake of the previous axis. Upper low finally exits Thursday/Thursday
night as surface high pressure builds in simultaneously. The upper
trough axes and the Canadian high pressure system brings with them a
cooler airmass into the region, and most locations for the short
term forecast period will not be able to reach the 70F mark,
although low 70s could sneak into the NW OH zones Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure drifts southeastward allowing for return flow to the
region and gradual warming into the long term period. Ridging aloft
gives way to a more zonal flow pattern into the weekend, and
slightly more unsettled conditions. Lots of spread in the details
for now, but could see a late Saturday/Saturday night upper trough
axis, followed by influences from a developing lee side low pressure
system with a possible warm frontal interaction for our area. POPs
on the gradual increase during this period, and by the end of the
weekend, likely back to near 80F or into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
A mix of low VFR and MVFR clouds continue across the region as
low pressure moves northeast and a cold front swings through the
area. The wind field with the front has been impressive with
synoptic wind gusts to 35 kt around the region and the window
for stronger gusts to continue through this evening. A solid
area of MVFR is entering NW OH and should spread across the
terminals through this evening and have all TAFs trending down
over the next several hours. Some drier air will enter the
region from the southwest tonight and ceilings may improve again
to VFR for a brief period of time. Winds tonight will slowly
diminish with gusts slowing falling before disappearing. The
next system will approach from the northwest for Tuesday with
another cold front bringing rain chances and lower ceilings and
trends will be back to MVFR. Rain coverage will be scattered and
is difficult to key in on timing at this time and have vicinity
shower mentions for now.

Outlook...Periodic Non-VFR conditions may exist in scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Expecting an increase in wind speeds behind a cold front sweeping
across Lake Erie out of the west at 20kts gusting to 30kts through
the evening and tonight. Water levels could drop significantly in
the western basin for a brief period of time, and have a Low Water
Advisory in place as a result. Also in place is a Small Craft
Advisory for these winds as well as wave heights 4-6ft in the
nearshore zones. Winds to ease Tuesday, but will become
northwesterly, so portions of the SCA will remain until the winds
fall below 10kts Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The onshore flow
will be reinforced Wednesday with another cold front with winds back
to around 15-20kts, easing through the end of the week. Likely not
going to get out of the onshore wind regime until Friday as high
pressure over the area finally moves overhead and to the southeast
next weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for OHZ009-
     010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
     Low Water Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...26