596
FXUS64 KCRP 280851
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
351 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect from noon through 8 PM.

- Slight risk of severe thunderstorms today through tonight.

- Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

Convection has diminished across the area overnight, but some
patchy light rain bands have lingered behind. The noteworthy
tidbit this morning however is the heat burst currently occurring
across the region in the wake of the thunderstorms. The temperature
at the Corpus Christi airport warmed to 84 degrees with the
dewpoint dropping to 63 degrees in the last hour. While NAS
Kingsville observations are 89 over 60! Quite impressive! What a
way to start off the day!

On that note, yet another hot day is in the cards for South Texas
today, although not has hot as yesterday. 850 MB temperatures will
be slightly cooler, resulting in surface temperatures a few
degrees cooler as well. Highs are forecast to range from the upper
80s along the coast to near 102 across the west. With dewpoints in
the mid to upper 70s, heat index values will be able to climb into
the 110-114 degrees range this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in
effect from noon through 8 PM today for most of South Texas with
the exception of the barrier islands.

Another round of convective potential is also in the forecast
for today through tonight as yet another mid level disturbance
tracks over the region. Hi-res models are indicating convective
initialization near a surface boundary over the Hill Country with
showers and thunderstorms reaching the area in the late afternoon
to evening hours. There is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms
covering a large portion of the area today through early Wednesday
morning. Instability will be very high (MUCAPE values 3-5k), with
a weak cap. Strong winds and large hail will be the primary
hazards. Things are expected to calm down Wednesday morning, but
rain chances will still linger behind. PoPs will range between 20
and 50% through tonight, and up to a 40% on Wednesday.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents today through Wednesday
owing to the combination of a moderate onshore flow and 7 to 8
second period swells and 3-4 feet swell heights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme heat related impacts will continue through
early next week.

South Texas will remain under the influence of a mid level ridge
through the long term period maintaining the unseasonably hot, humid
and hazy conditions that we have experienced for the last few weeks.
A shortwave trough is progged to move around the periphery of
this ridge about every 24 hours, initiating convection which could
skirt our northern to northeastern CWA. Will carry a low 10-30%
chance for showers/storms daily through the period in the
aforementioned areas. A persistent onshore flow will also
maintain the high dewpoints across the area. When combined with
afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 90s coast to around
102-106 far west, heat indices will reach advisory criteria each
day. Excessive heat warnings may again be required by early next
week. The onshore winds will also continue to draw a thick plume
of smoke/haze northward into the region as fires continue to burn
in Mexico. In fact according to the National Forestry Commission
of Mexico (CONAFOR), there were 125 active fires as of May 27.

By the early to middle part of next week the mid level ridge will
shift westward, and strengthen over the Southern Rockies.  If this
occurs, there could be a shift in the low level flow more toward the
northeast or north, which could temporarily end or reduce our hazy
skies. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail across area
terminals through the cycle. Convection should be coming to an
end over the next few hours, with drier conditions expected
through most of the day on Tuesday. Winds have been responding to
the nearby thunderstorms and have become breezy at times, but
these will generally weaken overnight, becoming light by the
early morning hours. Winds will strengthen to moderate levels
around mid to late morning today, before weakening again in the
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night
before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There
will be a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and
thunderstorms today through Wednesday, and a low (10-30%) chance
each day from Thursday through the end of the week, mainly across
the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  80  92  79 /  10  30  30  20
Victoria          95  77  92  76 /  10  40  40  20
Laredo           102  77  99  78 /  30  40  20  10
Alice             98  78  96  77 /  10  30  30  20
Rockport          92  81  89  80 /  10  30  40  30
Cotulla          102  77  98  78 /  20  50  20  20
Kingsville        97  79  95  78 /  10  30  30  20
Navy Corpus       91  82  89  81 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...ANM/88