Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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083 FXUS64 KCRP 221838 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 138 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages: - Continued Major to Extreme Heat Risk with Heat Index values nearing 114 today and Thursday. High pressure will continue today through Thursday, with high temperatures remaining in the 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will reach 110-114 from the southern inland Coastal Bend across the Brush Country, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for today from 1 pm to 7 pm. A few locations could approach 115+, but this is not expected to be widespread, so feel the Heat Advisory will be sufficient for today. Expecting similar conditions for Thursday, so there is a high chance that a Heat Advisory will be needed again. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will persist through Thursday. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons, with gusts to around 25 mph. Hazy conditions will continue to be possible daily. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. Synopsis: The overall pattern over south Texas looks like there will be little change and little chance for rain, other than a few minor shortwaves on a couple of days. The overall 500 mb pattern, once the main ridge is by us today, will flatten out into a mostly zonal pattern through next Monday, when another ridge builds into the region. Forecast Details: Thursday night and Friday are dry. High temperatures look to be around 90 at the Coastal Bend, with the 100F line from Kingsville to Beeville to Kenedy and the 105F temperature line following SH-16. The temperature lines move a little more east, each day, under the ridge and sunshine, so that 100 is possible in CRP (15-30% across the city) on Memorial Day. Memorial Day afternoon/evening it looks like a wave will move through with a sfc trough(temperatures don`t fall enough for a "cold front") and could kick off some showers and thunderstorms. By Tuesday morning the showers and thunder are done, before trying to re-fire in Mexico again, and possibly crossing the river. We`ll see how this works, as anytime the models pick a cold front to move through this far out in time, it tends to get the forecast wrong. Heat Indices: Friday there are some locations that could exceed 115F, but in a small area out in the Brush Country. The heat indices for Saturday through Memorial Day are in the Extreme range above 115F, and some locations possibly getting to 120F each of those days. The locations are the southern part of the Coastal Bend (roughly San Patricio county and south), and areas in the Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. We go from Extreme on Memorial Day to moderate on Tuesday. We`ll see if that happens. The problem would be that if the rain happens, which also means clouds, it could be "cooler", but it all depends on whether we see any convection that day. The models have not handled convection 7 days out very well. Wouldn`t be surprised if Tuesday and Wednesday are near Monday`s heat or just a bit lower. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings is expected this afternoon/evening over South Texas, followed by a transition to predominate MVFR ceilings overnight through the remainder of the TAF period. Expect periods of haze and mist to occur again tonight through Thursday morning. Expect moderate onshore flow late this afternoon/evening, followed by weak onshore flow late tonight/early Thursday, followed by increasing onshore flow toward the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Expect periods of moderate to strong onshore flow each afternoon through Memorial Day across our waters, especially the southern bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 79 93 79 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 77 91 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 105 79 105 81 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 78 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 87 80 88 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 102 79 103 79 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 96 80 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 80 88 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-230-239>244. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM....JSL AVIATION...WC/87