602
FXUS64 KCRP 172334
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Key Messages:

 Drier tonight, warmer tomorrow

Current radar shows a couple lines of showers and thunderstorms
stretching from the Brush Country through the northern Coastal
Plains and into the Victoria Crossroads. The HRRR and other CAM
models continue to show redevelopment across the Coastal Plains and
Coastal Bend this afternoon, but confidence is low at this time as
the atmosphere appears to have stabilized in the wake of the cluster
of thunderstorms that moves through the region late this morning. If
we get enough breaks in the clouds and the atmosphere is able to
destabilize with daytime heating, then the confidence for
redevelopment will increase significantly. Rain chances across the
region should quickly taper off this evening after sunset as PWAT
values begin to decrease.

As the upper-level trough continues moving eastward tonight, some
vorticity will swing across the base of the trough and through South
Texas, however, with PWAT values decreasing and the forcing from the
upper-level jet dynamic no longer over South Texas, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be low. Ridging will begin to move
into the region tomorrow promoting warmer temperatures. Despite PWAT
dropping to near 1" late tonight into tomorrow, sufficient moisture
will hang around to promote heat indices of 100-105 degrees area-
wide. There`s also a medium chance for patchy fog to develop from
the Brush Country through the Coastal Plains and into the Victoria
Crossroads as light winds will combine with the moisture from the
recent rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Key Message:

 A Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts from dangerous
heat next week across most of South Texas

The long term period starts out with a mid-level high over Cuba and
another one just south of the tip of Baja, CA. A ridge builds in
over the region and keeps storm tracks further north as subsidence
builds in across most of the state. The lack of deep moisture
combined with subsidence will preclude any rain/storm chances
throughout the long term period despite increasing PWAT`s next week.
Precipitable water values start out below normal < 1.0" than onshore
flow increases low level moisture with PWAT`s of around 1.50-1.75"
according to the GEFS mean ensemble by the end of next week with
normal values for this time of year at 1.50".

Hot surface temperatures combine with high humidity resulting in
dangerous heat most of the week next week with Tuesday and Wednesday
looking to be the peak. Generally, there`s a Major risk of heat-
related impacts for anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration, much of the week with heat indices ranging up to around
110 degrees. Tuesday and Wednesday look to pose an Extreme heat risk
with heat indices 110-115 degrees across much of the region. This
level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no
overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Please take safety precautions and brush up on
how to combat the heat at weather.gov/safety/heat

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A few showers continue around the VCT area this evening, but will
be exiting over the next couple of hours. Storms in Mexico west of
COT and LRD are expected to diminish as they move toward the Rio
Grande, but mid/upper levels clouds left over from the storms
will likely continue to stream across S TX. MVFR CIGs are expected
mainly along the coast with VCT, CRP and ALI having periods of MVFR
CIGs over tonight. VSBYs are also expected to lower to MVFR/IFR
for these areas toward early Saturday morning between 09-14Z due
to patchy fog. The SREF is showing the probability of visibilities
less than 1SM between 30-50% from ALI to VCT and 10-20% across
CRP. VFR conditions are expected by mid morning Saturday with
much less cloud cover due to a ridge building across S TX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Weak to moderate northeast flow this evening will weaken and drop
under 10 knots by midnight. Winds will remain weak at 10 knots or
lower through tomorrow night with the winds shifting to the
southeast tomorrow night. Low to medium chances for rain tonight
will drop to slim (less than 10%) tomorrow as an upper-level ridge
moves into the area. Weak onshore flow Sunday strengthens to weak
to moderate Sunday evening before becoming Moderate Tuesday
night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to resume
Wednesday through the end of the week. Warm and dry conditions are
expected with Maximum Heat Index values 90-95F Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  93  74  93 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          66  93  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            71 101  75 101 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             68  97  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          74  89  77  88 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           68 100  73 101 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  95  74  94 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  89  77  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TE/81