861
FXUS61 KCTP 210527
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
127 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of
high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and
light winds. A storm system moving north of the Great Lakes will
push its trailing cold front through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering showers should become confined to
southern PA on Friday before returning northward Memorial Day
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated showers and storms that impacted north-central
Pennsylvania during the early evening hours have all but
dissipated.

The overnight will be similar to the last few nights, with
perhaps a bit less nighttime stratus. Valley fog is expected to
develop once again, and have maintained the mention of patchy
fog in the forecast. There is some high cloudiness passing
overhead, so we`ll see if that had a detrimental affect on fog
development. Min temps will be mild, bottoming out in the 55-60
degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The summer-like stretch of weather continues through midweek,
with highs on Tuesday expected to be a a few degrees warmer than
Monday`s highs.

Otherwise, Tuesday will be very similar to Monday with isolated
showers/storms developing in the heat of the day and primarily
over the higher terrain. However, most locations should remain
dry once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An approaching cold front will bring a chc of showers/storms
late in the day on Wednesday. SPC has painted a MRGL SVR risk
for northwestern PA on Wed, with general thunder elsewhere.

More widespread showers are expected to arrive late Wed night
into Thursday, as cold front slowly sags southward across the
region. The best chance of widespread measurable rainfall
appears to be Thursday with this setup.

Although Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week for
most, temperatures should remain on the mild side through the
end of the week. The cold front will come through on Thursday
and then stall just south of PA on Friday. The proximity of the
stalled front will result in a continued chance of scattered
showers and t-storms for at least southern PA.

There remains some uncertainty in the forecast heading into the
Memorial Day weekend, but it appears that Central PA`s weather
could remain mild but showery.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy fog and low cloud impacts possible again during the
predawn and early morning hours Tuesday. The best area for
category reductions due to fog will be in the SE and the
Susquehanna Valley. Elsewhere will likely remain VFR through the
evening with some VCFG possible as patchy fog develops
overnight.

VFR will prevail for most of Tuesday after the early morning fog
lifts out of the region. There are a few scattered showers
possible for the NW PA, but their coverage remains low and
confidence is too low to include them in the BFD TAF other than
a mention of VCSH.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri-Sat...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego
LONG TERM...Evanego/Bowen
AVIATION...Bowen