129
FNUS28 KWNS 232048
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday...
Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the
West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak
will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak
heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central
High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern
Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled
with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will
yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across
NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit
/lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical
fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given
increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions
are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels
do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely
critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over
portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too
localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state
of fuels.

Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar
areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly
flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High
Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure
gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in
any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter,
a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting
fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast
period.

..Weinman.. 05/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$