Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
274 FNUS28 KWNS 212157 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$