Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
264 FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 3697 (S18E07, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of low level M-class flares this period. 3697 underwent slight decay and separation while maintaining the delta feature in the leader portion. The region also produced numerous C-class flares through the period. Region 3700 (S04W52, Dai/beta) grew in areal coverage and produced C-class flares. 3691 (N25W46, Dso/beta-gamma) showed an overall decay trend and magnetic simplification throughout the period. Region 3698 (N22W04, Dsi/beta) underwent some overall growth and consolidation in the leader spots. Further analysis of the associated asymmetric halo CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/1900 UTC, appears to be a backsided feature. The subsequent CME first visible at 01/2000 UTC and associated with the M7 flare, was determined to be mostly directed south and east, but have some possible Earth-directed potential late on 04 Jun. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 05 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 05 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 05 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT. Bz was variable at benign levels. Solar wind speed averaged near 325 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominantly negative sector. .Forecast... Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue through midday to late on 04 Jun. The 01 Jun CME mentioned above may cause enhanced conditions from late on 04 Jun into 05 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet levels are expected on 03 Jun. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are possible on 04 Jun with the nearby passing of the 01 Jun CME. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 05 Jun due to waning CME influence.