492
FXUS63 KDVN 281912
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
212 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible this afternoon into the early evening
  mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

- Quiet nice weather midweek, with low humidity and comfortable
  temperatures.

- Chances for precipitation return late in the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Partly to mostly sunny skies were seen early this afternoon
across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri.
Across our north, however, scattered showers and storms were
ongoing across portions of far eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois ahead of a shortwave diving south across the region. As
of 200 pm, temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Going through the early afternoon, look for this shortwave to drive
additional shower and storm development across portions of the area.
Right now, the most favorable chances continue to be across eastern
Iowa and northwest Illinois along and north of Interstate 80. Here,
latest deterministic guidance has higher mid-level lapse rates and
forcing with the shortwave. The main threats with storms will be
damaging winds given inverted V profiles driving higher DCAPE, with
a secondary threat of large hail where higher instabilities can be
achieved. A Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe thunderstorms remains
outlooked by SPC.

Storms will be mainly diurnally driven, so expect coverage to wane
head into the evening. High pressure will follow and build across
the area tonight, bringing cool and dry conditions to the area. Look
for overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

For Wednesday, a quiet day is in store with pleasant temperatures in
the low to mid 70s. Skies will feature plenty of sunshine with PM
clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Wednesday Night through Friday...

High pressure will keep the area quiet and dry through mid-week.
Temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 70s Thursday
as southerly flow returns. In addition, clouds will be on the
increase ahead of developing weather for late week.

For Friday, chances of showers and thunderstorms have decreased
quite a bit in this mornings model guidance. This is due to a
slowdown of the incoming system and movement of the high to the
east. Friday looks to be mainly dry with mostly cloudy skies and
similar temperatures to Thursday.

Friday night on...

Active weather returns this weekend into early next week with
several shortwaves on track to move through the Midwest. It does not
look like a washout as there will be times when we will be dry.
Regardless, there are at least chances of showers and thunderstorms
areawide each day. There is no strong signal for severe
thunderstorms at this time, though SCP probabilities do trend
upwards for our area Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures look to warm above normal with highs approaching the
upper 80s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A shortwave passing across the area early this afternoon will
bring potential for MVFR visibilities and ceilings along with a
threat of showers and thunderstorms. This will be seen mainly at
KDBQ, where a TEMPO group has been included for this TAF. Some
of these storms could be strong, with the primary threat being
strong wind gusts and small hail. Elsewhere, look for VFR
conditions with gusty northwest winds. These winds will subside
tonight as high pressure moves into the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Most areas received less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in
the past 24 hours. The exception was right along the
Wapsipinicon River, where amounts between a half inch and one
inch were reported.

The lower portions of the Iowa and Cedar rivers continue to rise
with most sites expected to see Minor flooding. The crests will
occur within the next 2 days at locations along these rivers.
The Wapsi River near Anamosa and De Witt continue to rise with
routed flow working its way down from upstream. The river is
expected to remain below Moderate flood at Anamosa with a crest
of 17.9 feet late Wednesday evening. The Wapsi River near De
Witt has reached Major flood stage this morning and will slowly
rise the rest of this week to a crest of 13.3 feet early next
week. Rainfall will be spotty this afternoon and not anticipated
to impact the current forecasts.

On the Mississippi, upgraded New Boston to a Flood Warning given
increased confidence of the site reaching flood in 3 days due to
routed flow.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck
HYDROLOGY...Gross