Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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126 FXUS63 KDVN 311729 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1229 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry and continued pleasant today. - Chances for showers (30-70%) tonight (and possibly a few storms) lingering into Saturday. - Active pattern next week, with near daily chances for showers and storms. May have to watch Tuesday into Wednesday for a chance of stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Another pleasant day is in store for the area today with lower humidity compliments of low level E/SE flow advecting in drier air from Ohio Valley high pressure. There are very low chances (10-15%) for a stray shower/sprinkles in our far west with some glancing low/mid level theta-e advection, but the brunt of any measurable precipitation potential will reside to our west/south during the daylight hours. We`ll see some mostly filtered sunshine at times with high level clouds, and potentially transitory bouts of opaqueness in some mid clouds especially south/west closer to the theta-e advection. Highs will be modulated by the cloud cover and extent of solar insolation, but overall look to be seasonable and range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tonight into Saturday, the area looks to be split between stronger forcing attendant to a passing mid level shortwave to the south across portions of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and a stronger wave traversing the International border with MN/ND. Despite this, sufficient mid level forcing and moist isentropic ascent overspreads the area to aid increasing precipitation chances (30-70%). Instability looks rather limited but sufficient for perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, but largely anticipate showers. As such, rain amounts should be mostly light and both GEFS and ECS probabilities for 0.5 inch or more of rain this evening to Saturday evening are 10-40%. Better coverage of precipitation Saturday looks to be the first half of the day, with chances lowering to 15-30% in the afternoon and possibly lingering early evening pending the timing of a secondary weaker mid level wave. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A brief bout of 850 hPa ridging builds in Sunday making for largely dry conditions. However, by Sunday night the high will quickly retreat and isentropic lift will rapidly strengthen ahead of an emerging shortwave in the Central Plains. The brunt of the low level jet and attendant advection and convergence looks to focus mainly to our west, but nonetheless will expect shower and storm chances to ramp up late Sunday night through Monday AM with a veering jet and passing shortwave. For much of early to mid next week the pattern looks to become predominantly fast zonal. This will keep the weather active across the region, as multiple disturbances are shuttled quickly in the flow. There is considerable differences in timing, strength and placement of these waves in deterministic and ensemble guidance, as to be expected given many of these are low amplitude. As a result, we continue to have many days of broad- brushed and higher PoPs while in reality it favors smaller windows or time periods of high PoPs with still many dry hours. A stronger mid level shortwave by mid next week may provide the opportunity for some stronger storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Beyond that, it looks to turn cooler while remaining unsettled heading into late next week and next weekend, as the preponderance of the deterministic and ensemble guidance supports a cut-off low traversing the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. This will foster continued periodic chances for showers, as spokes of energy rotate around the low. The clouds and eventual northwest flow aloft will favor cooler conditions. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Week 2 temperature outlook for June 7-13 has probabilities (40-50%) leaning toward below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR will prevail today into the first part of tonight. Then a weak area of low pressure will bring periods of light rain or showers from late tonight into Saturday morning. There is a low chance (20%) for thunder but did not include in the TAFs due to low confidence. Ceilings will gradually deteriorate into Saturday morning with MVFR likely at BRL and MLI; brief IFR is possible. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Uttech