Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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332 FXUS63 KDVN 280753 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 253 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible this afternoon into the early evening mainly along and east of the Mississippi River. - Quiet nice weather midweek, with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. - Chances for precipitation return late in the week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A similar day to yesterday is forecast across the area. Quiet morning with mostly clear skies for the morning. Temperatures will be chilly for late May. In the late morning, another wave approaches the area leading to clouds and the return of showers and storms. This wave is about 6 hours earlier than yesterday, so the better area for showers and storms will be east of the Mississippi River this afternoon and into the evening. After this wave moves through the area, expect quiet conditions for the overnight into Wednesday. As far as storms today go. First, Tds will be lower than yesterday as the depth of decent BL moisture has decreased. Mixing from heating today will likely drop Tds into the low 50s to upper 40s. Second, the better forcing for ascent will be east as well as the better lapse rates. This means that the better chance for strong updrafts and hail will be east where the mrgl risk is. There is ample deep layer shear so updraft organization will occur. With the lower Tds we may have a better chance to see gusty winds with the showers as inverted V soundings become more prevalent. The best area for strong and severe storms will be along and east of the Mississippi River this afternoon. Coverage of showers will quickly decrease this evening as the wave pulls out of the area. At the same time, a cold front with this wave will drop Tds even more overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 To begin the period a cold front will be moving into the area from the north as largescale NW flow keeps the area quiet and cool. A high amplitude ridge builds in to end the week. This ridging is short lived as the SW flow part of it moves into the area on Friday with an immediate shortwave trough moving into the area. This will begin the active weather weekend across the area. Energetic flow regime continues into next week as a series of shortwaves move quickly through the flow. The beautiful weather Wednesday into Friday AM will see dewpoints starting out in the 40s before the 50s creep back in to end the week. Overall, highs on Wednesday behind a backdoor cold front will be in the 60s to near 70 and with the low Tds may actually feel chilly if you aren`t in the sun. Temperatures moderate as moisture returns to the area Friday. This next shortwave won`t have a lot of moisture to work with so CAPE will be low, but showers and storms are possible Friday into Saturday AM. Into the weekend, it does not look like a washout as there will be times where we are dry. Moisture return will be slow but we will likely be in the 60s by Monday. Overall, no strong signal for severe weather so if there is a threat it will likely not be all that noticeable until we get closer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period as good flying weather is expected. Scattered showers and storms are possible later in the period, but should result in VFR cigs and maybe MVFR vsbys. These conditions will be very short-lived mainly between 18z and 00z. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Gibbs