363
FNUS73 KDVN 210031
FWSDVN

Spot Forecast for S130/190 training...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
731 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the
National Weather Service Quad Cities at (563) 386-3815.

.DISCUSSION...

Fire weather concerns will continue to remain low through
midweek with green fuels and increasing humidity, along with
several disturbances aiding in periodic showers and storms.
Severe storms are likely for portions of the area on Tuesday.

The Grassland Fire Danger Index -GFDI- does not account for
precipitation that occurs or any snow on the ground. Please
make appropriate adjustments.


.TUESDAY...

Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1000, then No Tstms until
                    1300, then 1-8 strikes until 1600.
Begin/end of pcpn...Begin around 12 PM but could be after 3 PM.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Max apparent temp...86.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds up to 9 mph shifting to the
                    south 10 to 13 mph with gusts to around 22 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Wind shift..........None.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 21 mph increasing to 20 to 21
                    mph with gusts to around 36 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 16 mph increasing to south 32
                    to 35 mph.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     20     30     40     60
LAL.............3      2      1      1      2      4
RH..............90     84     74     62     57     59
Aparnt tmp (F)..67     71     76     82     85     86
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 9   S 12   S 15   S 18   S 20
20 ft wind gust.13     16     21     25     30     33
Eye level wind..SE 4   SE 5   S 7    S 9    S 11   S 12
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      10     13     15     18     20
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1200   2000   2900   3300   1700
Transport wind..SE 10  S 16   S 22   S 29   S 32   S 32
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900, then >25 strikes
                    until 2200, then 1-8 strikes until 0100, then
                    No Tstms.
Begin/end of pcpn...Rain risk ending around 12 AM.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Max apparent temp...84.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph shifting to the west 5 to 9 mph
                    overnight.
Wind shift..........Winds shifting to the west after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 36 mph shifting to the west 9 to 10 mph
                    with gusts to around 21 mph after 3 am. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 26 to 31 mph shifting to the west 20
                    to 26 mph overnight.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Chc of pcpn (%).60     70     70     70     10     10
LAL.............4      5      2      2      1      1
RH..............58     60     73     73     72     75
Aparnt tmp (F)..84     78     71     65     60     57
20 ft wind......S 20   SW 18  SW 17  W 15   W 13   W 10
20 ft wind gust.36     32     29     25     23     21
Eye level wind..S 12   SW 11  SW 10  W 9    W 8    W 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.22     19     17     15     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   900    900    1200   1100   900
Transport wind..S 31   SW 28  SW 28  W 26   W 24   W 21
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Begin/end of pcpn...N/A.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Max apparent temp...73.
Eye level winds.....West winds 5 to 6 mph.
Wind shift..........None.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
RH..............77     75     65     52     46     43
Aparnt tmp (F)..56     57     62     68     72     73
20 ft wind......W 9    W 9    W 10   W 10   W 10   W 10
20 ft wind gust.18     17     18     18     18     18
Eye level wind..W 5    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 6    W 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.11     10     11     11     11     11
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1900   2600   3400   4100   4700
Transport wind..W 18   W 17   NW 16  NW 15  NW 14  NW 12
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5

$$
Forecaster...Pierce
Requested by...Tucker Lutter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414785.0/DVN
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0