053
FNUS22 KWNS 201933
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
adjustments were made with this update. Confidence in the
development of sustained critical conditions is highest over parts
of northeastern NM, where the surface pressure gradient will be
tightest on the western periphery of a lee cyclone. However,
near-normal ERCs across this area (owing to rainfall during the last
couple weeks) limits confidence in large-fire potential --
precluding Critical highlights at this time.

..Weinman.. 05/20/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/

...Synopsis...
Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday
with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep
mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow
will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is
expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also
aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds
are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions
are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later
time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated
area, the greater threat may be.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$