Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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053 FXUS63 KEAX 271724 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1224 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather is expected for today through Wednesday with near seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday into the weekend, although forecast confidence and clarity for this time period remains relatively low at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Fairly strong shortwave trough is moving southeast across IA early this afternoon. Forcing associated with this shortwave is leading to more numerous showers and storms across northern MO. Instability will remain relatively weak with MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Effective shear is strong though so there may be some small hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. The threat of severe weather remains low given the weak instability. Given the increased coverage of precipitation, have added or increased PoPs to northern and northeastern MO. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 GOES 16 mid level water vapor imagery with 500 mb heights superimposed shows troughing over much of the central CONUS with a strong mid level jet extending across the Ozarks and into the Ohio Valley. Widespread convection is ongoing across much of the Mid South, Tennessee Valley, and Appalachia along and ahead of an analyzed surface cold front and convectively driven outflow boundaries. Meanwhile, a reinforcing cold front has made its way through the region from north to south Sunday evening and early this morning associated with a 996 mb surface low currently centered over northern Lake Michigan. This provided just enough forcing to help generate a few isolated severe storms Sunday evening within an environment of around 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and around 30 knots of 0-6 km wind shear. The most impressive storm of these produced 2 inch plus hail from near Princeton to Milan and Macon. These storms have since dissipated, leaving generally clear skies, light northwesterly winds, and temperatures in the 60s this morning. Mid level troughing remains over the region today, with surface high pressure building in and sliding into NE Oklahoma. The result will be a generally pleasant day for the Memorial Day holiday, with mostly clear skies and seasonal high temperatures. A strong low to mid level jet is progged to develop over NW Missouri by mid afternoon as a subtle shortwave trough translates through the central CONUS, which could yield a decent west northwesterly afternoon breeze (up to 15 mph), especially for NW and northern Missouri. Seasonal temperatures are expected yet again for Tuesday, and with some drier theta-e advection, mid afternoon dewpoints are forecast to be only around 50 degrees, making it feel quite comfortable. Northwesterly flow aloft remains in place for Wednesday as the region will be between troughing to the east and a building, moderately amplified mid level ridge over the Plains. The result will yet again be seasonal temperatures under generally clear skies. By Thursday, a mid/upper trough is projected to move across the Intermountain West and into the Northern High Plains, suppressing the ridge, with a few subtle perturbations moving into the Central Plains and a surface low developing east of the Front Range. This should yield increased southeasterly surface flow and theta-e advection, with chances for showers and storms moving in from the west by Thursday afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Friday and Saturday as models suggest the possibility of continued shortwave troughs or embedded perturbations traversing within the mid level flow. Confidence is not particularly high in how exactly things will play out for late week into the weekend. The 01z NBM for MCI shows large spread in the possible range of outcomes for accumulated rainfall (QPF), as does the GEFS, whose ensemble mean for rainfall at MCI through Saturday night is around 1.4 inches, but has members ranging from very little QPF to a few members showing up to 3 inches of QPF. The Weather Prediction Center does have western portions of our region within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday and Thursday night and all of our region within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to last through the duration of the TAF period. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest slowly as the day continues. There may be a few gusts in the lows 20kt range this afternoon. Winds will weaken as mixing diminishes this evening. Cloud coverage is expected to remain clear/ mostly clear through the forecast period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...CDB DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Collier