Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
950 FXUS66 KEKA 171219 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 519 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to cool into the weekend with gusty north wind pushing onshore each afternoon. Coastal stratus and fog will most likely weaken into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A trough dipping over the Pacific northwest has kicked of a cooling trend with interior temperatures most likely struggling to reach 80 today. Marine stratus and fog is only inconsistently entrenched along the coast this morning with the most consistent coverage around the Eel River Valley. A weakening marine inversion combined with gusty north wind near shore have helped mix out stratus elsewhere. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen through the weekend, allowing for interior tempertures to drop below average. This will brings highs in the 70s by Saturday and Sunday. Lower temperatures will continue to weaken the marine inversion. Combined with gusty north winds pushing onshore each afternoon, any coastal stratus this weekend will be very weak and inconsistent. Essentially all ensemble members show a generally troughy pattern continuing into next week which will allow below normal temperatures to persist. Increasingly deep troughs will allow for more moisture to be pulled across the area. Though the vast majority of models show little chance (less than 20% chance) of wetting rain, some showers and thunderstorms are certainly possible over high terrain by mid next week. /JHW && .AVIATION...Marine stratus is slowly being eroded by mid-level northerly winds as a weak surface front drops into NorCal. Conditions have been undulating in and out of IFR at CEC while strong winds already appear to be mixing down. Winds decoupled from the marine layer will support persistent IFR ceilings and LLWS at ACV through late morning/early afternoon before also mixing down. Gusts 20-30 KTS likely for the coastal terminals this afternoon as the cloud deck breaks out of Humboldt Bay. Meanwhile, satellite indicates a similar pattern of southerly LL cloud advection into the UKI valley. IFR ceilings and reduced visibility`s will likely continue through the afternoon before light westerly winds resume and clouds lift out. && .MARINE...Northerly gales expected to persist across the outer waters Friday, producing hazardous 10-12 foot short period waves across all zones. HREF is still forecasting gusts of 35-45 knots late Friday night into Saturday across the outer waters as the coastal jet peaks in intensity. Significant wave heights exceeding 15 feet at 10-11 seconds are expected in response early Saturday into Sunday. Steep and dangerous seas will continue through at least late this weekend as gales persist in the outer waters. Current model guidance indicates the strongest winds and wave response shifting to the southern waters on Sunday before another resurgence of gales early next week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455. Hazardous Seas Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png