454
AXPZ20 KNHC 030406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 03 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, from 16N southward,
moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 99W and 104W.
Active disorganized convection is expected to continue with this
system into the early part of the week. However, development of
this system appears unlikely.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northern
Colombia to 10N85W to 09N92W to 11N100W to 10N108W to 10N117W to
09N123W to 09N130W to low pressure near 08N137W 1011 mb to
09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within
120 nm south of the trough between 100W and 108W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north
of the trough between 99W and 102W. also within 60 nm north
of the between 109W and 113W, and within 60 NM south of the
trough between 118W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm north of the trough between 118W and 125,
also between 136W and 140W, and within 60 nm south of the
between 118W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate northwesterly winds
across the Baja California waters extending southward to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail over the
remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range
in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6 ft off Baja
California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas
are in the 5-6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less
are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California waters through the early part of the
upcoming week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail
across the open waters. Seas of 7 to 8 ft in NW swell are
expected off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy
conditions, dense at times, may persist off southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NE winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range in long-period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions
continues off the Central American coast due to agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may
decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American
offshore waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to locally strong
NE winds N of the monsoon trough to 22N and W of 120W. Seas with
these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough seas of 6-8 ft in north to northeast swell prevail across
all but the far NW waters, where seas are in the 5-6 ft range.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of the
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds over the western
part of the area are forecast to diminish to mostly fresh speeds
Mon afternoon. Associated seas will slowly subside through late
Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days.

$$
Aguirre