951
FXUS64 KEPZ 310509
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1109 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Very warm afternoons will continue with some breeziness.
Temperatures will climb even hotter next week. Sacramento
Mountains could see a stray shower or thunderstorm on Friday with
a bit higher chance on Saturday extending also into Hudspeth
County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

A subtle UL trough is moving through NM today, which is keeping us
dry while setting off storms to the east. It`s not doing much for
our weather otherwise though it will foster a bit of a breeze
today. Moisture will try and push west tonight, making it to
portions of the Sacramento Mountains and areas east of the Rio
Grande. It will be a shallow air mass that quickly retreats back
to the east after sunrise. GFS and especially the NAM show some
lingering moisture and resultant instability over the Sacs in the
afternoon, so I added the mention of dry thunder. Moisture will
push back west again overnight Friday into Saturday. The NAM, GFS,
and Euro are more aggressive with this push, reaching to the Rio
Grande. It will retreat back east, but there is a better signal
for moisture and subsequent instability over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth County into the afternoon. The NAM shows a ridiculous
4000 J/kg cape around 18z, dropping to around 1500 by evening. I
don`t buy it as the NAM typical well overdoes moisture for this
part of the country, but the GFS shows some lingering, modest
instability while the Euro shunts everything east. It will be
interesting to see how the CAMs depict Saturday`s forecast when
they begin to forecast that far out. The NAM Nest shows
convection with even a right-mover along the border of our CWA.
Regardless, whatever instability remains will have about 20-30
knots of shear to work with in spite of a building ridge aloft, so
some storm organization is possible should moisture remain.

Another low-amplitude trough swings through our area on Sunday,
which will well sweep our moisture to the east. It will also bring
a minor uptick in wind. Behind that s/w sharp UL ridging will
build from the south ahead of a closed low off the Pacific, which
models have no clue what to do with. The ridge will allow
temperatures to climb with El Paso facing a string of 100s for
much of next week. The wild card is whether moisture can slip in
beneath this ridge as the GFS and, much later, the Euro insists.
NBM does have some slight POPs in the forecast for Day 7,
Thursday. All Spring, guidance has forecast a decent moisture
intrusion in the 6+ day range, only for it to never fully
materialize. I would not count on the moisture too much, but the
heat looks like a good bet. NBM 75th percentile has El Paso at
heat advisory levels (105) for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

VMC through forecast period. WSW flow 250-280 overnight AOB 10
knots. Skies remaining clear with FEW250 by sunrise Friday
morning. Similar conditions again tomorrow with SW surface flow
and peak afternoon gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

Very dry conditions are expected to continue through the next five
days with single-digit afternoon RH values. The main uncertainty
is the dryline, which will make an appearance tomorrow and
Saturday morning, and how far west it will move each morning. East
of this boundary, expect fair to good overnight recoveries with
poor recoveries to the west. This boundary is expected to retreat
back east during the afternoon. The Sacramento Mountains may see
enough moisture for cumulus build-ups, a few of which may produce
a light shower or isolated dry lightning Friday afternoon. The
dry line looks to make a more robust push Saturday morning though
westward extent remains uncertain. It will retreat back east, but
eastern Hudspeth and up north into the Sacramento and Capitan
mountains may have enough moisture for a few thunderstorms. Dry
lightning will be possible again. On Saturday, moisture will be
swept well east of the area with all areas seeing single-digit min
RH values and poor overnight recoveries.

The good news is no significant winds are forecast. The dry line
may bring some breezy to gusty easterly winds while afternoons
will see westerly winds around 10 to 15 MPH. Winds near any
showers or thunderstorms will also be gusty. Venting for the
period will range very good to excellent in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               96  61  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               93  57  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               71  47  73  48 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    93  62  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              85  56  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   94  56  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  56  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       94  64  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                96  56  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  58  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               88  61  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   96  61  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             93  57  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           94  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            93  56  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    95  57  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 94  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                92  59  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  85  51  83  51 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero                81  49  84  50 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                 79  51  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  86  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                91  61  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                92  54  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             87  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   89  54  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    96  54  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               88  56  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  88  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   92  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  92  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  57  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt