787
FNUS74 KEPZ 212229
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Moser Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
429 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1554 MDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire concerns for the rest of today will become near
critical for the next few days. RH values will hover around 10%
for the next few days. RH recovery will be fair tonight and will
reach 30-35%. Wind speeds will be breezy (10-15 mph with gusts of
up to 25-30 mph) for the forecast period. High temperatures will
be in the mid 60s for the whole period. ERC percentiles will be
between 75-77th. Ventilation rates will be excellent for the
entire period.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 12 mph with gusts to around
                    32 mph.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 32 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (191600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0
LAL.............1      1
Temp............65     64
RH..............21     21
20 ft wind......W 12   W 12
20 ft wind gust.32     32
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   7000
Transport wind..W 32   W 32
Haines index....4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..192    192
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 33 mph in
                    the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (177400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (3900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      2      3      4      4      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............63     56     52     49     48     46
RH..............21     25     28     31     31     34
20 ft wind......W 11   W 11   W 7    W 6    W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.33     33     24     17     17     16
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   6800   400    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 23   W 23   W 14   W 14   W 10   W 10
Haines index....4      5      5      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..177    177    4      4      4      4
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 9 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (56600 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (177700 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........6         5         5         4
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        55        63        68
RH..............33        26        16        12
20 FT wind......W 6G18    W 8G23    W 9G26    W 9G28
Mix hgt (ft)....5100      5100      8900      9200
Transport wind..W 9       W 9       W 20      W 25
Haines index....4         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..57        57        178       211
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 11 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West
winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Joey Kosiorowski
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414853.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joey_kosiorowski@FIRENET.GOV