Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
479 FNUS74 KEPZ 171535 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...USFS National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 935 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 17. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Light afternoon breezes today and tomorrow can be expected with winds becoming breezy each afternoon Sunday through at least Tuesday. A slight chance for thunderstorms exists this afternoon with min RH values around 20 percent today. Dry thunderstorms may create gusty and erratic winds near outflows. Dry weather persists this weekend through mid week next week causing min RH values to stay critical at 8 to 12 percent. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 1. Max temperature.....Around 73. Min humidity........23 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest around 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (106000 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........18 45 69 43 Weather cov.....NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE S CHC S CHC NONE Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 20 8 LAL.............1 6 6 1 Temp............65 69 69 72 RH..............37 30 30 26 20 ft wind......NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 NW 8 20 ft wind gust.13 16 16 17 Mix hgt (ft)....7600 9600 10000 9700 Transport wind..N 14 N 14 NW 14 NW 14 Haines index....3 3 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..96 106 101 128 Ventrate Cat....GOOD VYGD VYGD VYGD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 52. Max humidity........38 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 15 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (152000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (8700 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........5 5 8 7 7 10 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............73 66 58 56 55 54 RH..............20 26 33 37 37 36 20 ft wind......W 7 W 7 W 6 W 7 W 7 W 7 20 ft wind gust.17 17 14 14 14 15 Mix hgt (ft)....10100 600 600 600 600 600 Transport wind..W 15 W 15 W 16 W 16 W 18 W 18 Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..152 52 9 9 9 9 Ventrate Cat....EXNT FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 82. Min humidity........12 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Mixing height.......13200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (52700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (96800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........6 3 15 27 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............54 72 80 82 RH..............35 20 13 12 20 FT wind......W 7G16 W 6G15 W 6G15 W 8G18 Mix hgt (ft)....500 1500 12800 13200 Transport wind..NW 15 NW 8 W 7 W 8 Haines index....4 4 5 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 53 84 97 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 9 mph. .MONDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 14 mph. .TUESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 15 mph. $$ Forecaster...SLUSHER Requested by...Brian anderson Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414517.0/EPZ .DELDT 05/17/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL brian.d.anderson@usda.gov