066
FXUS64 KEWX 030529
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Confidence in shower and thunderstorm chances remains low this
afternoon and evening across the region. We will keep a low chance
for showers and storms in the forecast out west across far western
Val Verde county to account for any activity that develops over the
lower Trans-Pecos region. In addition, the complex of storms
currently over northwest Texas could survive and make it into
portions of the northern Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor.
Otherwise, look for another warm night with low temperatures mainly
in the 70s. On Monday, temperatures continue to nudge upward and we
could be close to Heat Advisory thresholds across portions of the Rio
Grande plains south of Del Rio into the San Antonio Metro area.
There will also be another low chance for showers and storms across
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor north of San Antonio as a weak
upper disturbance moves across north Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rain has basically been removed from consideration in the long term.
A weak perturbation is still shown in the 12Z ECM data for Tuesday
afternoon/evening and repeating again Wednesday, but the GFS has
trended with the NBM and lowering rain chances to being unworthy of
mention. As heights aloft build east into the west half of TX, the H7
winds turn more westerly and remove the moisture that might get have
gotten convection going in the northerly flow aloft. Instead, we`ll
get more sunshine and heating as is shown in the MEX MOS trends for
the middle of the week. Highs will likely reach 100 for the SAT area
and will potentially get there for the first time this year around
Austin. However, we`ll stop shy of that forecast as we noted a pretty
good amount of cumulative rain totals of 1.5 to over 3 inches in the
past 5 days which should consume some of that heating with
evapotranspiration. Heat index values already have jumped above 100
degrees over the Coastal Prairies today and this will likely trend
higher into advisory levels by Tuesday. Some of the Apparent T values
might suggest we get into another excessive heat category, but this
may settle out as the air gets drier each day. Pattern-wise, our
hottest two days might be Wednesday and Thursday with the mid and
upper level ridges parked over Central TX. On Friday, the H7 ridge
axis goes east and potentially opens up a deeper marine layer for a
temperature trend reversal. However, ridging above this level
remains, and we may still see some near heat advisory conditions
Friday. Hopefully by this time we begin to see some deeper inland
intrusions of the sea breeze which typically makes the evening air
much more tolerable. Just outside the 7-day forecast there remains
some signs of upper ridge weakening and potential some convective
potential, but the patterns with each model run do not show much
consistency or agreement with one another.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

MVFR ceilings prevail at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF)
through the overnight and this morning while KDRT will see the MVFR
ceilings arrive closer to 12Z. VFR conditions then return through
the afternoon and evening hours as clouds scatter out and bases
raise. KDRT will see mostly clear skies establish this afternoon.
Like yesterday, there is a low end chance for convection from this
afternoon through this evening but confidence remains far too low
to insert TSRA or VCTS mentions in this TAF package. Anticipate
returning MVFR ceilings across the 30 hr TAF sites from overnight
into early Tuesday morning. Light to moderate east-southeast to
southeasterly winds continue with gusts as high as 25 knots in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  77  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            92  74  94  74 /  20  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  79 106  81 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             99  77 101  76 /  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  78  94  77 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           99  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Brady