Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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777 FXUS64 KEWX 210529 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1229 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions early this afternoon. Clouds have been slow to break over the Edwards Plateau, so opted to lower Max T`s by a degree or two this afternoon, but it won`t make much difference, as it`ll still be hot. Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working southward, but don`t get your hopes up, as it`s unlikely to have much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term. Hot again on Tuesday with highs in the 100-105 range along the Rio Grande and in the 90s elsewhere. As far as storm chances go, we may see a stray shower or storm develop Tuesday afternoon/evening over the Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains, but 700mb temperatures will remain quite warm, resulting in strong capping. Anything that can break through the cap would be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds, but the odds are less than 10% at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate our weather through the long term period, resulting in an early season heat wave. A few weaknesses in the northern periphery of this ridge will help stall our warming trend a bit Wednesday and Thursday, as well as bring a low chance for isolated showers and storms to far northern portions of our CWA (southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country). While there will be sufficient instability and shear in place to support severe storms both days, a capping inversion will be working to inhibit convective development (especially on Wednesday), which is part of the reason for the low PoPs aside from the subtle forcing. Another chance for isolated storms seems possible Friday afternoon/evening across northern portions of the Hill Country before the ridge expands slightly northward over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will lead to the warmest temperatures of the year so far with widespread upper 90s to upper 100s expected for high temperatures and even warmer heat indices. Heat advisories and/or warnings will be likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 MVFR stratus cigs are currently filling in over the I-35 TAF sites and should reach DRT by around 10Z. These conditions should lift by 17-18z. A steady S/SE wind is expected overnight with some afternoon gusts over 20 knots in the late afternoon and evening. More MVFR cigs are projected for the 24-30 hour window at SAT/AUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 93 75 93 / 0 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 95 74 95 / 0 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 90 73 89 / 10 20 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 103 80 104 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 91 74 91 / 0 20 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 98 74 98 / 0 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 91 76 91 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 96 76 97 / 0 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...76 Aviation...18