519
FXUS62 KFFC 041836
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
236 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will produce southerly
flow across the forecast area bringing abundant moisture to north
and central Georgia through the short term forecast. This surface
moisture as well as warm temperatures will prime the area for
relatively active weather as an impulse embedded within the 500 mb
flow will move towards the area. This piece of energy will aid in
the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Hi-res guidance has been a bit all over the map with
respect to how today`s precip will play out spatially. Generally
speaking, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected across much of the forecast area today where some locations
may experience multiple rounds of activity. SBCAPE between 1000-
2000+ J/kg and low level lapse rates between 6 and 7+ C/km are
progged for much of the region, however mid level lapse rates as
well as shear are lacking. In the absence of appreciable upper
level support, widespread severe storms are not expected (though
can`t rule out an isolated instance). A few storms could become
strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy
rainfall (PWATs in this morning`s sounding are running around 1.5"
with forecast PWATs as high as 2.0" across some locations in the
CWA) being the primary concerns in storms that form today.
Overnight, the chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue primarily for locations north of the I-20 corridor as
another wave associated with the shortwave progresses over north
Georgia.

The biggest concern Wednesday will be associated with a cold front
advancing across the Plains and into the mid-south tomorrow with
some Hi-Res guidance hinting at a line of storms moving across
portions of Mississippi and Alabama to our west. Current trends
show most of the organized convection beginning to wane after
sunset, but will need to monitor the evolution of the upstream
environment tomorrow to see if it holds together long enough to
impact portions of north and west Georgia. For now, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for much of the day
tomorrow. With little to no airmass change, similar hazards will
be at play tomorrow, with low (but not zero) chances for severe
thunderstorms.

High temperatures today and Wednesday will be running form the 80s
to low 90s with overnight lows generally in the 60s.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Complex upper air pattern will lead to a some what unusually strong
upper level system for June pushing a cold front (!) into the area
by Thursday. A huge anticyclonic wave break crashing through the
western CONUS and into the eastern CONUS will shear off a decent
chunk of the polar tropopause allowing for deep, coherent vortex
to form over the Great Lakes region. Bowling ball of an upper
level low will have a broad sfc reflection that will drive an
initial front into the area on Thursday morning or afternoon. With
plenty of moisture expected to be in place, PoP chances are
elevated. Models have not been too excited in terms of coverage or
QPF with this for a variety of reasons - there is certainly a
lack of convergence along the front, but there is likely to have
been a few days of ongoing thunderstorms preceding the front that
may have worked over the upper atmosphere a bit. Do think even the
hires guidance that has gotten into range is a bit underdone in
coverage just given the environment with a front approaching. Not
currently expecting any severe with this, but will never rule out
a storm getting a little spicy in Georgia during June.

A secondary cold front moves in by Thursday night and brings much
drier air to the CWA. This will cut off most of our PoP chances for
the next few days as high pressure with a drier surface airmass
settles in. Alas, the moisture cannot stay gone for long, for it is
June in Georgia and we can`t have nice things with the bathtub known
as the Gulf of Mexico sitting nearby. Moisture filters back in by
Sunday as the upper level low over the Great Lakes begins to break
into two pieces, with one rotating towards us. PoP chances will
increase as a result.

Temps through this time period will be dependent on location. North
Georgia will see highs in the low to mid 80s through much of the
period with lows in the lower 60s. Some upper 50s may even be
possible Friday night as the drier, cooler continental airmass
settles in. In central Georgia highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with lows in the 60s.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions this afternoon with SHRA/TSRA through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Overnight, patchy FEW/SCT IFR
cigs will develop across most TAF sites through sunrise before
improving to SCT MVFR/VFR cigs. Another wave of SHRA/TSRA possible
tomorrow morning through the afternoon across most TAF sites. SW
winds at 5-9KT will become SE/VRB at 3KT or less overnight. SE
winds pick up tomorrow afternoon between 5-7KT.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA timing. High confidence on all
other elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  87  68  85 /  60  60  60  50
Atlanta         68  89  69  86 /  50  40  70  50
Blairsville     63  80  64  82 /  60  70  80  40
Cartersville    67  89  67  87 /  70  50  80  40
Columbus        70  91  71  87 /  50  30  50  70
Gainesville     67  85  69  84 /  70  70  70  40
Macon           68  91  70  88 /  50  40  30  70
Rome            68  90  68  88 /  70  50  80  40
Peachtree City  67  89  68  86 /  50  30  60  50
Vidalia         71  92  73  91 /  50  50  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...KAL