944
FXUS62 KFFC 011752
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are underway across much of AL
at the time of this writing, driven by a shortwave trough aloft
over the ArkLaMiss. The shortwave will drift east/northeast
through the day, driving the moisture axis currently over AL
eastward over the western half or so of GA. It`s across this area
that isolated to scattered showers are expected today. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible (illustrated by the General Thunder
risk from SPC) but the HREF and CAMs suggest that appreciable
instability will struggle to materialize due largely to dense mid-
level and upper-level cloud cover. High temperatures will be in
the 70s across much of northern and western GA thanks to cloud
cover, while temperatures are forecasted to reach the lower-80s to
mid-80s across central and eastern GA, where more insolation is
expected. In the mountains, temperatures may only reach the
mid-60s to upper 60s.

The passage of the shortwave and the presence of its associated
moisture axis warrants a chance of showers and storms across much
of the area overnight, with 40% to 60% PoPs generally along and
north of I-85, in closest proximity to the lift/ascent from the
shortwave. Overnight/early Sunday morning lows will be in the 60s
outside of the northeast GA mountains, where mid-50s to upper-50s
are expected.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected on Sunday, but ample moisture
and decreasing cloud cover should allow for daytime
destabilization and scattered to possibly widespread showers.
Isolated to scattered storms appear likely as HREF-progged MUCAPE
ranges from 500-1500 J/kg across much of the area. Marginal (at
best) mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km bulk shear less than 30 kts
suggest that severe storms are not likely. That said, forecast
soundings show decent DCAPE (600-800 J/kg) so a few storms could
produce gusty to locally damaging winds should the downdrafts tap
into and mix down drier air aloft. Appropriately, SPC has the
entire area in a General Thunder risk. High temperatures are
forecasted to be in the upper 70s to mid-80s outside of the
mountains, where temperatures may only peak in the 60s.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The period will start with a weak upper trough extending from S
New England to the FL peninsula. This feature will shift E early
next week, leaving a weak upper pattern over the area. At the
surface, a weak frontal system will become diffuse, with isolated
to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night.

Early next week, weak disturbances will pass mostly N of the
area. This will lead to more of a diurnal summertime thunderstorm
pattern slightly favoring the N half of the area. By mid to late
weak, the upper pattern will become more troughy over the Great
Lakes and OH Valley. This pattern will support a surface front
which is presently forecast to sweep through the area late
Thursday and early Friday. More uniform rain chances are expected
ahead of the front, with drier conditions behind the front on
Friday. At this time, widespread severe wx is not anticipated.
However, a few storms may be strong across the extreme N on Wed
and Thu afternoons. Isolated strong storms will also be possible
accompanying the front as it moves S across Central GA on Fri
afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal,
with low temperatures a bit farther from the norm. By Fri, the
cold front will bring slightly below normal high temperatures to
the NW portion of the state. /SEC

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Several waves of pcpn likely thru the TAF pd. Impactful -RA chcs
are low for northern TAF sites this afternoon, and VCSH should be
sufficient thru 21-22Z. Best chcs for -RA come from 05-10Z
tonight and may be accompanied by MVFR cigs/vsbys in BR. Low-MVFR
cigs are psbl beginning around daybreak, with a return to VFR by
early aftn. TSRA chcs return Sun aftn. Winds will be out of the SE
today with low-end gusts to 15-18kts psbl thru 00-01Z before
tapering off and then shifting to the SE between 17-18Z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  80  64  87 /  40  50  30  20
Atlanta         65  81  66  86 /  50  50  20  20
Blairsville     58  74  60  81 /  50  60  20  20
Cartersville    63  82  64  87 /  60  50  20  20
Columbus        66  83  67  88 /  60  50  20  20
Gainesville     63  78  65  85 /  50  50  30  20
Macon           66  82  65  88 /  20  50  20  20
Rome            64  82  65  88 /  60  50  10  20
Peachtree City  64  82  65  87 /  50  50  20  20
Vidalia         68  84  68  89 /  10  50  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...96