Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
428 FXUS62 KFFC 311902 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Messages: - Isolated showers are possible in western Georgia Saturday, but most of the area will remain dry. - Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday night, especially in northern Georgia. This Evening through Saturday Night: Upper level ridging will be replaced by weak troughing during this period as a shortwave trough moves from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley. This transition will allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to gradually filter into the region Saturday and Saturday night. Forecast rain chances through the day on Saturday are in the 10 to 30 percent range over western Georgia. Any thunder on Saturday should be limited due to anemic CAPE profiles (MUCAPE values 300 to 700 J/kg). Severe weather is not expected and any interruptions to daily activities should be brief in nature. A surface high over the Atlantic and the approaching shortwave will combine to keep east/southeast winds moving in the region on Saturday at 4 to 12 kt. Afternoon highs should range from the 70s in northwest Georgia (where clouds will be pervasive) to the upper 80s in east central Georgia. Rain chances will continue to inch upward Saturday night, especially in northwest Georgia where proximity to the upper level trough will be better. Expect rain chances near 60 percent in north Georgia, falling to 10 percent near Macon. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 A shortwave trough will be pushing across the Ohio Valley across the Appalachians on Sunday, while at the surface a weak frontal boundary approaches Georgia from the northwest. This will serve to keep PoPs relatively elevated on Sunday, particularly across northwest and north Georgia where scattered showers and thunderstorms are most probable. From Monday to Tuesday, the region will remain within weak quasi- zonal flow aloft. PoPs will remain in the isolated to widely scattered realm through midweek, with the highest PoPs relegated to north Georgia as weak shortwave disturbances ripple to our north. By late Wednesday into Thursday, as troughing builds back eastward across the Great Lakes region, a weak cold front will be ushered toward the area. PoPs will thus be on an upward trend from north to south through Thursday ahead of the front. At this point, significant severe weather concerns are not anticipated. No huge temperature variations or anomalies are expected through the period. Highs will be near to slightly below normal Sunday, trending to near to slightly above normal through the work week while initial near-normal lows will trend several degrees above normal by midweek. RW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions (cloud bases AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) will prevail in the region through 18Z Saturday, then showers or isolated thunderstorms could result in localized visibility restrictions. Winds will remain easterly or southeasterly (080-150 degrees) at 4 to 12 kt through 00Z Sunday. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Moderate confidence in the ATL TAF High confidence in the wind and visibility forecasts. Moderate confidence in the precipitation and ceiling forecasts. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 57 82 63 82 / 0 10 20 40 Atlanta 64 82 66 82 / 0 20 40 50 Blairsville 56 73 59 76 / 0 10 40 60 Cartersville 62 82 64 82 / 0 20 50 60 Columbus 66 86 67 85 / 10 20 30 40 Gainesville 59 79 64 79 / 0 10 30 50 Macon 61 85 66 85 / 0 10 10 30 Rome 63 82 64 82 / 10 30 60 60 Peachtree City 63 83 64 83 / 0 20 40 40 Vidalia 62 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Albright