Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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456 FXUS63 KFGF 302335 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 635 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minimal chances for impacts today through Saturday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue today, with additional chances Friday night into Saturday morning. - There is a chance for impactful weather on Sunday, with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible. - An active pattern keeps the possibility for showers and possibly stronger storms in the forecast heading into the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The cold front is nearly through eastern North Dakota now with only parts of Cass and Richland counties still seeing southeast winds. Rain will continue along the front as it tracks east with a couple of the stronger cells south of HWY 10 maybe capable of winds to 40 mph and pea size hail. Instability will wane by 9pm transitioning to the line to only a heavy rain threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...Synopsis... Active weather continues through the forecast period as H5 low pressure strengthens over the northern Canadian Provinces and moves very slowly to the east. A series of associated shortwaves and troughs, of various strengths, will serve to bring ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms. ...Minimal Impacts Through Saturday... Today`s showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to continue eastward through the afternoon and evening, giving way to relatively quiet weather heading into Friday morning. Rain chances will increase through the day, however, with another round of showers and mainly embedded thunderstorms overnight Friday and early Saturday morning. ...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Sunday... A relatively deep H5 trough extends southward into the Northern Plains late Saturday into Sunday. As this moves east, strong moisture return prevails out of the south, allowing CAPE to increase ahead of a sharp theta-e gradient boundary. SBCAPE has an 80 percent chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg, and a 50 percent chance to exceed 2000 J/Kg in GEFS ensembles. Shear looks supportive at both the low (0- 3km) levels and the deep (0-6km) layers. CSU machine learning highlights portions of the region as having the potential for severe thunderstorms, with a probability of around 15 percent. As of this afternoon SPC is also carrying a 15 percent chance for severe storms for the southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. Model soundings have been somewhat consistent in showing support for supercells or hybrid multicell/supercell clusters. Details are expected to change; however, it is worth noting that guidance has been consistently in agreement over the past couple of days. ...Active Weather Continues... Heading into next week, H5 low pressure over northern Canada moves into the Hudson Bay region. This will allow a somewhat progressive, but still wavy, zonal pattern to prevail across the northern CONUS. Our next chance for showers and storms will occur in response to a trough passage on Tuesday and Wednesday. While there is still a lot of uncertainty in exact details, a few strong storms could be supported. From Wednesday onward, guidance shows a very large range of possible scenarios involving additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Timing has a large degree of variability between ensemble members, thus details at this time are minimal; however, large scale pattern support indicates at least the potential for stronger storms if timing lines up with peak afternoon heating. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions post front for ND taf sites already with this lasting through the forecast period. Rain showers through 8pm for TVF and 10pm for BJI with VCTS possible. gusty winds not expected with VFR conditions settling in post rain as winds become light and WSW through Friday night. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...TT