734
FXXX02 KWNP 200156
WEKFOR

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 20 0143 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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#               27-day Space Weather Forecast
#
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 May - 15 June 2024

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate),
with a slight chance for high levels (R3; Strong) through 21 May as
Region 3685 (S13 L=155, Ehi/BG as of 18 May) continues to produce
low-level M-class flares (R1). The region will take some time to
rotate to the western limb - rotating beyond the limb by 30 May.
Meanwhile eight other regions will rotate beyond the limb beginning
21 May through 26 May. A good number of former spot regions are
timed to rotate back into Earth-view through much of the outlook
period - the most anticipated is former Region 3664 (S17, L=347,
Fkc/BGD on 11 May) that is expected to return by 26-27 May. The
litany of returning regions, to include 3664, could lead to
increasing solar activity levels back to moderate to high levels as
early as 26 May.

There will be a slight chance of S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms
through 30 May until Region 3685 rotates beyond the western limb. If
Region 3664 survives to its return to the visible solar disk 26-27
May, there is a possibility of an increase to a chance of an S1
storm by 7-15 June.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be normal to
moderate with a chance for high levels 20 May - 15 Jun.

Geomagnetic activity is anticipated to be at quiet to active
conditions, with likely G1 (Minor) storm levels 20 May due to CME
effects. Conditions are expected to wane on 21 May and primarily
quiet to active levels are expected. A period of quiet conditions
follows 22-23 May, with CH HSS effects leading back to active levels
24-25 May. The remainder of the period is anticipated to be
primarily a mix of quiet to active conditions in varying response to
occasional recurrent CH HSS effects.