909
FXUS64 KFWD 040026
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
726 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

An MCS arriving from the north contributed to showers and
thunderstorms across our northeast quadrant this afternoon and
evening, with thunderstorms still impacting areas east of the DFW
Metroplex as of 7 PM. In addition to small organized bowing
segments evolving from convection within the MCS, new isolated
supercellular convection developed near a west-east oriented
instability gradient, with ascent perhaps locally aided by a
gravity wave emanating from convection to the north. There is at
least a small tornado threat near this boundary across parts of
East Texas where surface winds are locally backed and shear is
sufficient to produce supercellular storm structures. However,
this threat along with convective intensity overall should be on a
steady downward trend over the next couple of hours.

Overnight, we`ll have to monitor areas to the north for renewed
convective development, with some guidance suggesting that a
strong increase in warm advection near/along remnant convective
outflows in southwestern and central Oklahoma could ignite one or
more convective clusters. These MCSs should have a tendency to
spread south/southeast, and would impact parts of North and/or
East Texas tomorrow morning should they manage to develop. We`ll
maintain low and broad storm chances through the daytime tomorrow
as well, as any remnant outflows could serve as a focus for
additional isolated convective development during peak heating
while an extremely unstable airmass remains in place. Otherwise,
expect a breezy day with gusts out of the south at 20-30 mph,
while high temperatures climb into the mid an upper 90s. Heat
index values will be near 105 in spots, and a Heat Advisory may
need to be considered for parts of the CWA in subsequent
forecasts.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

The heat will continue to be the main headline as we move through
the middle of the upcoming week. Afternoon highs will range in
the low to mid 90s, with continued saturation in the low levels as
seen by our dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices will
reach up to 105 to 109 degrees at times across portions of North
and Central Texas, which may result in heat illness in some of our
population. Be sure to take frequent breaks over the next several
days, avoid peak heating hours, and drink plenty of water.

The other talking point will be the continued low chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week and once
again toward the end of the week into the weekend. Coverage,
timing, and hazards will need to continue to be refined over the
next several days as confidence remains quite low. Much of this
will hinge on the exact placement of remnant outflow boundaries,
on top on the evolution of potential convective clusters and they
continue to push to the south and east across the Red River.
Thankfully it appears that coverage will be lower than it has been
in recent days, which will help to provide a much needed break as
clean up crews continue to work to clean up damage across
portions of our coverage area. Flooding issues will continue to be
a threat as well as any additional rainfall could cause problems
at this point. Soils are incredibly saturated and reservoir lakes
are full. It won`t take much to cause additional flooding
problems, so continue to be aware of this as we move through the
days.

As has been said several times over the past few days, continue
to check back for updates as the forecast can and will evolve.
Confidence has been quite low as of late as guidance has been all
over the place. Short term and near term changes may be necessary
at times depending on real-time observations through radar, and
satellite interpretation and surface analysis.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Convection is largely now east of the TAF sites with the airports
expected to be free of thunderstorm activity the rest of the
evening. There are a couple of areas to monitor for additional
convective development overnight, primarily in portions of
Oklahoma, and if any convective complex were to become
established it would move southward into parts of North Texas
early tomorrow morning. With low confidence in a complex
developing and only a low chance for one to affect the terminals,
will not include any TS in the TAFs for tomorrow at this time.
However, the potential is certainly not zero, and trends will
need to be monitored over the next 6-12 hours. Otherwise, expect
a resurgence of MVFR and perhaps some IFR cigs at all TAF sites
overnight while winds return to the southeast at 10-15 kts.
A scattering of the stratus deck to VFR is expected by early
tomorrow afternoon with a few daytime wind gusts of 20-25 kts.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  92  76  91  76 /  20  20  20  10   5
Waco                73  92  75  91  74 /  10   5  10  10  20
Paris               69  86  73  87  71 /  40  30  30  20   5
Denton              72  91  74  90  72 /  30  20  20  10   5
McKinney            72  89  75  89  73 /  30  20  20  10   5
Dallas              72  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  20  10  10
Terrell             72  88  74  89  72 /  60  20  20  20  10
Corsicana           74  91  76  91  75 /  40  10  10  20  10
Temple              74  92  76  92  74 /  10  10  10  10  20
Mineral Wells       72  97  75  93  73 /  10   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$