Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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191
UXUS97 KGJT 031307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
707 AM MDT Monday, June 3, 2024

This forecast is for Monday, June 3, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 81.4 F/27.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1354 ft/min (6.9 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 20859 ft MSL (16020 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 91.0 F/33.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1400 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 17278 ft MSL (12438 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 06/04...... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:49:00 / 20:35:54 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 46 min 54 sec (886 min 54 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:12:27 MDT... 73.11 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 06/03/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 14473 ft MSL (9634 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18250 ft MSL (13411 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19486 ft MSL (14647 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.3
K index......................... +16.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -58.4 -73.1   275   27   14   1.9   1.0   99.9 211.9    38.7      M    M
 45000  -58.3 -72.9   295   26   14  -4.8  -2.7   74.4 165.9    25.7      M    M
 40000  -59.5 -75.1   340   55   28   7.7   4.2   49.4 121.0    11.0      M    M
 38000  -54.6 -66.3   340   41   21   8.4   4.6   48.1 118.5    10.4      M    M
 36000  -49.9 -57.8   325   33   17   7.7   4.2   46.4 115.5     9.5      M    M
 34000  -44.2 -47.6   330   30   15   8.9   4.9   46.1 114.9     9.5      M    M
 32000  -38.5 -37.3   315   30   16   8.5   4.7   44.9 112.8     8.9      M    M
 30000  -33.4 -28.1   300   29   15   7.5   4.1   44.0 111.1     8.4      M    M
 29000  -31.2 -24.2   290   35   18   7.6   4.2   43.1 109.6     7.9      M    M
 28000  -28.8 -19.8   290   30   15   9.2   5.1   42.3 108.2     7.3      M    M
 27000  -26.1 -15.0   280   30   15   6.5   3.6   42.1 107.8     7.2      M    M
 26000  -24.2 -11.6   280   29   15   6.7   3.7   40.9 105.6     6.3      M    M
 25000  -22.2  -8.0   280   28   14   8.2   4.5   39.7 103.5     5.4      M    M
 24000  -19.7  -3.5   265   29   15   8.0   4.4   39.2 102.6     5.0      M    M
 23000  -17.3   0.9   265   22   11   8.0   4.4   38.6 101.4     4.5      M    M
 22000  -15.1   4.8   265   17    9   8.0   4.4   37.7  99.9     3.9      M    M
 21000  -15.7   3.7   300   25   13  -0.6  -0.3   33.6  92.5     0.4      M    M
 20000  -13.3   8.1   285   26   13   7.0   3.9   33.0  91.4    -0.2   1466  7.4
 19500  -12.7   9.1   280   25   13   4.4   2.4   32.0  89.6    -1.0   1434  7.3
 19000  -12.1  10.2   275   24   12   5.3   2.9   31.1  88.0    -1.8   1398  7.1
 18500  -11.1  12.0   275   25   13   7.6   4.2   30.5  86.9    -2.4   1356  6.9
 18000   -9.9  14.2   275   25   13   8.3   4.6   30.3  86.5    -2.6   1304  6.6
 17500   -8.0  17.6   280   24   13   8.4   4.6   29.9  85.9    -3.0   1226  6.2
 17000   -6.8  19.8   275   26   13   8.3   4.6   29.7  85.5    -3.2   1174  6.0
 16500   -5.5  22.1   280   24   12   9.3   5.1   29.5  85.1    -3.4   1121  5.7
 16000   -4.1  24.6   275   21   11   9.4   5.2   29.5  85.1    -3.4   1064  5.4
 15500   -2.7  27.1   280   22   11   9.4   5.2   29.5  85.1    -3.4   1007  5.1
 15000   -1.3  29.7   270   21   11   9.4   5.2   29.5  85.1    -3.5    950  4.8
 14500    0.1  32.2   265   21   11   9.4   5.2   29.5  85.0    -3.5    893  4.5
 14000    1.5  34.7   265   21   11   9.4   5.2   29.4  85.0    -3.6    835  4.2
 13500    3.0  37.4   265   19   10   9.4   5.2   29.4  84.9    -3.6    778  4.0
 13000    4.4  39.9   260   17    9   9.4   5.2   29.3  84.8    -3.7    721  3.7
 12500    5.8  42.4   270   16    8   9.4   5.2   29.3  84.7    -3.7    664  3.4
 12000    7.2  45.0   260   17    9   9.4   5.2   29.2  84.6    -3.8    607  3.1
 11500    8.6  47.5   255   16    8   9.4   5.2   29.1  84.4    -4.0    550  2.8
 11000   10.0  50.0   245   16    8   9.5   5.2   29.0  84.2    -4.1    493  2.5
 10500   11.4  52.5   240   16    8   9.7   5.3   29.0  84.1    -4.1    435  2.2
 10250   12.1  53.8   235   16    8   8.3   4.6   28.9  84.1    -4.2    407  2.1
 10000   12.7  54.9   235   16    8   7.6   4.2   28.7  83.7    -4.3    382  1.9
  9750   13.3  55.9   245   14    7   9.3   5.1   28.6  83.6    -4.5    356  1.8
  9500   14.0  57.2   240   13    7   8.3   4.5   28.6  83.5    -4.6    330  1.7
  9250   14.5  58.1   240   12    6   7.1   3.9   28.4  83.2    -4.8    306  1.6
  9000   15.1  59.2   235    9    5   7.3   4.0   28.2  82.8    -5.0    282  1.4
  8750   15.6  60.1   230    8    4   7.3   4.0   28.0  82.5    -5.2    259  1.3
  8500   16.1  61.0   220    8    4   7.3   4.0   27.9  82.1    -5.4    235  1.2
  8250   16.7  62.1   200   11    6   7.3   4.0   27.7  81.8    -5.6    212  1.1
  8000   17.2  63.0   185    9    5   7.3   4.0   27.5  81.4    -5.8    188  1.0
  7750   17.8  64.0   175   10    5   7.2   4.0   27.3  81.1    -6.0    164  0.8
  7500   18.3  64.9   160   13    7   7.6   4.1   27.1  80.7    -6.2    141  0.7
  7250   18.8  65.8   155   17    9   6.3   3.5   26.9  80.4    -6.4    117  0.6
  7000   19.1  66.4   150   21   11   0.5   0.3   26.4  79.6    -6.9    101  0.5
  6750   19.0  66.2   150   23   12  -2.6  -1.4   25.5  78.0    -7.7     98  0.5
  6500   18.9  66.0   145   25   13  -0.8  -0.4   24.7  76.4    -8.6     93  0.5
  6250   18.9  66.0   145   26   13  -0.5  -0.3   23.9  75.0    -9.3     86  0.4
  6000   18.9  66.0   140   25   13   1.3   0.7   23.1  73.7   -10.1     79  0.4
  5750   19.0  66.2   140   23   12   2.7   1.5   22.6  72.7   -10.7     67  0.3
  5500   19.2  66.6   130   18    9   3.1   1.7   22.1  71.7   -11.3     55  0.3
  5250   19.3  66.7   120   14    7   0.4   0.2   21.5  70.7   -11.9     43  0.2
  5000   19.0  66.2   105   11    5  -8.0  -4.4   20.5  68.9   -13.0     46  0.2

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           06/03/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       06/03/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +0.6        | CAPE...    +0.2    LI...       +1.0
CINH...    -0.2    K Index... +21.4        | CINH...     0.0    K Index... +20.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.7 -75.5  285  22 11  -1.3  -0.7 | -60.3 -76.5  275  26 13  -2.4  -1.3
 45000 -61.0 -77.8  305  27 14   1.5   0.8 | -62.8 -81.0  290  33 17   2.6   1.4
 40000 -58.4 -73.1  325  41 21   7.2   4.0 | -58.4 -73.1  300  36 18   8.2   4.5
 38000 -53.3 -63.9  320  38 19   8.5   4.7 | -53.0 -63.4  300  32 17   8.9   4.9
 36000 -48.1 -54.6  315  35 18   8.5   4.7 | -47.7 -53.9  300  29 15   8.9   4.9
 34000 -43.0 -45.4  310  31 16   8.7   4.8 | -42.4 -44.3  300  28 14   8.7   4.8
 32000 -37.7 -35.9  305  27 14   8.7   4.8 | -37.2 -35.0  295  28 14   8.7   4.8
 30000 -32.7 -26.9  300  26 13   8.3   4.5 | -32.2 -26.0  290  28 15   8.2   4.5
 29000 -30.2 -22.4  300  26 13   8.3   4.5 | -29.7 -21.5  285  29 15   8.2   4.5
 28000 -27.7 -17.9  295  26 13   8.3   4.6 | -27.3 -17.1  285  29 15   8.2   4.5
 27000 -25.6 -14.1  295  26 13   6.5   3.6 | -25.1 -13.2  280  30 15   6.6   3.6
 26000 -23.2  -9.8  290  27 14   6.5   3.5 | -22.7  -8.9  280  31 16   6.6   3.6
 25000 -21.3  -6.3  290  27 14   6.5   3.6 | -20.7  -5.3  280  32 16   6.7   3.7
 24000 -19.6  -3.3  290  28 14   5.5   3.0 | -19.0  -2.2  280  31 16   5.4   3.0
 23000 -18.0  -0.4  285  27 14   5.5   3.0 | -17.4   0.7  275  30 16   5.4   3.0
 22000 -16.4   2.5  285  27 14   5.5   3.0 | -15.9   3.4  275  29 15   5.4   3.0
 21000 -14.7   5.5  280  26 13   5.8   3.2 | -14.2   6.4  270  28 14   5.7   3.1
 20000 -13.0   8.6  280  25 13   5.9   3.2 | -12.6   9.3  265  27 14   5.7   3.1
 19500 -12.1  10.2  275  25 13   5.9   3.3 | -11.7  10.9  260  26 13   5.7   3.1
 19000 -11.3  11.7  275  25 13   6.5   3.5 | -10.9  12.4  260  25 13   6.0   3.3
 18500 -10.3  13.5  275  24 12   7.1   3.9 | -10.0  14.0  260  25 13   6.3   3.5
 18000  -9.2  15.4  270  24 12   7.1   3.9 |  -9.1  15.6  255  25 13   6.2   3.4
 17500  -8.2  17.2  270  24 12   7.1   3.9 |  -8.1  17.4  255  25 13   7.0   3.8
 17000  -7.1  19.2  270  23 12   7.2   3.9 |  -7.1  19.2  250  25 13   7.0   3.8
 16500  -6.1  21.0  265  23 12   7.7   4.2 |  -6.0  21.2  250  25 13   7.6   4.2
 16000  -4.9  23.2  265  22 11   8.0   4.4 |  -4.8  23.4  250  25 13   8.1   4.4
 15500  -3.7  25.3  265  22 11   8.1   4.5 |  -3.6  25.5  245  25 13   8.2   4.5
 15000  -2.4  27.7  265  21 11   8.6   4.7 |  -2.3  27.9  245  25 13   8.7   4.8
 14500  -1.2  29.8  265  21 11   8.5   4.7 |  -1.0  30.2  245  24 13   8.6   4.7
 14000   0.1  32.2  260  20 10   9.0   4.9 |   0.3  32.5  245  24 12   9.2   5.0
 13500   1.5  34.7  260  20 10   9.0   4.9 |   1.6  34.9  245  23 12   9.1   5.0
 13000   2.8  37.0  260  20 10   9.2   5.1 |   3.0  37.4  240  23 12   9.2   5.0
 12500   4.2  39.6  255  19 10   9.3   5.1 |   4.4  39.9  240  22 11   9.2   5.0
 12000   5.6  42.1  255  19 10   8.9   4.9 |   5.7  42.3  240  22 11   9.1   5.0
 11500   6.9  44.4  250  19 10   8.7   4.8 |   7.1  44.8  240  21 11   9.1   5.0
 11000   8.2  46.8  250  18  9   7.5   4.1 |   8.4  47.1  240  20 10   8.2   4.5
 10500   9.2  48.6  250  18  9   6.1   3.4 |   9.6  49.3  240  20 10   7.6   4.1
 10250   9.8  49.6  250  18  9  10.3   5.7 |  10.2  50.4  240  19 10  11.2   6.2
 10000  10.7  51.3  245  17  9  10.7   5.9 |  11.2  52.2  240  19 10  10.8   5.9
  9750  11.3  52.3  245  17  9   6.8   3.7 |  11.8  53.2  245  18  9   7.6   4.2
  9500  11.8  53.2  245  16  8   7.6   4.2 |  12.4  54.3  245  17  9   7.9   4.3
  9250  12.4  54.3  245  16  8   8.3   4.6 |  13.0  55.4  245  17  9  10.0   5.5
  9000  13.6  56.5  240  14  7   6.8   3.7 |  14.5  58.1  245  16  8   8.0   4.4
  8750  14.1  57.4  235  13  7   7.3   4.0 |  15.1  59.2  245  15  8   8.9   4.9
  8500  14.7  58.5  235  13  6   6.8   3.7 |  15.8  60.4  250  14  7   7.6   4.2
  8250  15.2  59.4  235  12  6   6.2   3.4 |  16.3  61.3  255  12  6   8.5   4.7
  8000  15.6  60.1  235  11  6   6.2   3.4 |  17.0  62.6  255  12  6  10.5   5.7
  7750  16.1  61.0  225  11  5   6.7   3.7 |  17.8  64.0  255  12  6  10.8   5.9
  7500  16.6  61.9  220  10  5   5.2   2.9 |  18.6  65.5  255  12  6   9.1   5.0
  7250  16.9  62.4  215   9  5   3.9   2.2 |  19.2  66.6  260  11  6   7.6   4.2
  7000  17.3  63.1  215   8  4   7.0   3.9 |  19.9  67.8  260  11  6  10.4   5.7
  6750  17.9  64.2  205   7  4   8.8   4.8 |  20.7  69.3  260  11  6  12.0   6.6
  6500  18.5  65.3  200   7  4   7.9   4.4 |  21.6  70.9  260  10  5  10.8   5.9
  6250  19.1  66.4  190   6  3   8.0   4.4 |  22.4  72.3  265  10  5  10.9   6.0
  6000  19.7  67.5  185   5  2   7.8   4.3 |  23.2  73.8  270   9  5   8.7   4.8
  5750  20.4  68.7  190   5  3  12.1   6.6 |  23.9  75.0  265   9  5  14.7   8.0
  5500  22.1  71.8  175   4  2  40.0  21.9 |  26.9  80.4  275   8  4  83.4  45.7
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           06/03/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       06/03/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...    +0.8    LI...       +0.4        | CAPE...    +5.1    LI...       -0.2
CINH...    -7.4    K Index... +21.8        | CINH...   -12.1    K Index... +24.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.5 -76.9  275  29 15  -2.4  -1.3 | -60.4 -76.7  280  31 16  -1.7  -0.9
 45000 -62.6 -80.7  285  40 21   2.9   1.6 | -61.7 -79.1  285  41 21   2.6   1.4
 40000 -58.0 -72.4  290  41 21   8.6   4.7 | -57.7 -71.9  285  50 26   7.0   3.8
 38000 -52.5 -62.5  285  38 20   9.0   4.9 | -52.4 -62.3  280  45 23   8.9   4.9
 36000 -47.1 -52.8  280  35 18   9.0   4.9 | -47.1 -52.8  275  41 21   8.9   4.9
 34000 -41.9 -43.4  275  34 17   8.6   4.7 | -41.5 -42.7  275  40 20   8.2   4.5
 32000 -36.7 -34.1  280  33 17   8.5   4.7 | -36.5 -33.7  270  39 20   8.3   4.5
 30000 -31.9 -25.4  280  33 17   7.9   4.3 | -31.9 -25.4  270  37 19   7.6   4.2
 29000 -29.5 -21.1  280  33 17   7.9   4.3 | -29.6 -21.3  270  36 18   7.6   4.2
 28000 -27.2 -17.0  280  33 17   7.9   4.4 | -27.4 -17.3  270  34 18   7.7   4.2
 27000 -24.7 -12.5  275  34 17   6.3   3.4 | -25.3 -13.5  270  33 17   6.7   3.7
 26000 -22.8  -9.0  275  34 18   6.3   3.5 | -23.3  -9.9  270  33 17   6.7   3.7
 25000 -20.9  -5.6  270  34 18   6.3   3.5 | -21.4  -6.5  270  33 17   6.7   3.7
 24000 -19.2  -2.6  270  34 17   5.8   3.2 | -19.5  -3.1  265  33 17   5.8   3.2
 23000 -17.5   0.5  265  32 17   5.8   3.2 | -17.8  -0.0  265  33 17   5.8   3.2
 22000 -15.7   3.7  260  31 16   5.8   3.2 | -16.1   3.0  265  33 17   5.9   3.2
 21000 -14.0   6.8  255  30 15   6.0   3.3 | -13.9   7.0  260  32 17   6.2   3.4
 20000 -12.2  10.0  250  28 15   6.0   3.3 | -12.1  10.2  260  31 16   6.2   3.4
 19500 -11.4  11.5  250  28 14   6.1   3.3 | -11.2  11.8  255  30 16   6.2   3.4
 19000 -10.5  13.1  245  27 14   6.4   3.5 | -10.3  13.5  255  30 15   6.3   3.5
 18500  -9.5  14.9  245  27 14   6.8   3.8 |  -9.4  15.1  255  29 15   6.4   3.5
 18000  -8.5  16.7  240  27 14   6.9   3.8 |  -8.5  16.7  250  28 14   6.3   3.5
 17500  -7.4  18.7  240  26 14   6.9   3.8 |  -7.4  18.7  250  27 14   7.7   4.2
 17000  -6.4  20.5  240  26 13   7.0   3.8 |  -6.3  20.7  250  27 14   7.6   4.2
 16500  -5.4  22.3  240  25 13   7.6   4.2 |  -5.2  22.6  250  26 14   8.3   4.5
 16000  -4.2  24.4  240  25 13   8.2   4.5 |  -3.9  25.0  250  26 13   8.6   4.7
 15500  -2.9  26.8  240  24 12   8.3   4.5 |  -2.6  27.3  250  26 13   8.8   4.8
 15000  -1.6  29.1  240  24 12   9.1   5.0 |  -1.3  29.7  250  26 13   9.3   5.1
 14500  -0.3  31.5  240  23 12   9.1   5.0 |   0.1  32.2  250  25 13   9.2   5.0
 14000   1.1  34.0  240  23 12   9.4   5.1 |   1.5  34.7  250  25 13   9.8   5.4
 13500   2.5  36.5  240  23 12   9.3   5.1 |   3.0  37.4  250  24 13   9.7   5.3
 13000   3.9  39.0  245  23 12   9.2   5.1 |   4.4  39.9  250  24 12   9.5   5.2
 12500   5.3  41.5  245  22 11   9.2   5.0 |   5.8  42.4  255  24 12   9.5   5.2
 12000   6.6  43.9  245  22 11   9.3   5.1 |   7.2  45.0  255  23 12   9.4   5.2
 11500   8.0  46.4  245  22 11   9.3   5.1 |   8.6  47.5  255  23 12   9.4   5.2
 11000   9.4  48.9  250  22 11   8.4   4.6 |  10.0  50.0  260  22 11   8.4   4.6
 10500  10.6  51.1  250  21 11   7.9   4.3 |  11.1  52.0  260  22 11   8.3   4.6
 10250  11.2  52.2  250  20 10  11.6   6.4 |  11.9  53.4  260  21 11  12.0   6.6
 10000  12.2  54.0  250  20 10  11.3   6.2 |  12.8  55.0  260  21 11  11.0   6.0
  9750  12.9  55.2  255  20 10   8.7   4.8 |  13.5  56.3  260  21 11   8.4   4.6
  9500  13.6  56.5  255  20 10   8.9   4.9 |  14.1  57.4  265  20 10   8.7   4.8
  9250  15.1  59.2  255  19 10  11.0   6.1 |  14.8  58.6  265  20 10  10.1   5.5
  9000  15.8  60.4  255  19 10   9.5   5.2 |  15.6  60.1  265  19 10  10.5   5.8
  8750  16.6  61.9  255  19 10  10.1   5.6 |  16.3  61.3  265  19 10   9.2   5.0
  8500  17.3  63.1  255  19 10   9.1   5.0 |  17.0  62.6  265  18  9   9.6   5.3
  8250  18.0  64.4  260  19 10   9.4   5.1 |  17.7  63.9  265  18  9   9.1   5.0
  8000  18.7  65.7  260  19 10  10.5   5.7 |  19.1  66.4  270  18  9   9.9   5.4
  7750  19.5  67.1  260  19 10  10.7   5.8 |  19.8  67.6  270  17  9  10.0   5.5
  7500  20.3  68.5  260  18  9   9.4   5.1 |  20.6  69.1  270  17  9   9.1   5.0
  7250  20.9  69.6  260  19 10   8.0   4.4 |  21.2  70.2  270  17  9   8.1   4.4
  7000  21.6  70.9  260  19 10  10.2   5.6 |  21.8  71.2  270  17  9   9.7   5.3
  6750  22.4  72.3  260  18  9  11.6   6.4 |  22.6  72.7  270  16  8  10.7   5.9
  6500  23.3  73.9  260  17  9  10.8   5.9 |  23.4  74.1  270  15  8  10.4   5.7
  6250  24.1  75.4  260  17  9  11.0   6.0 |  24.2  75.6  275  15  8  10.7   5.9
  6000  24.9  76.8  265  17  9   8.6   4.7 |  25.0  77.0  275  15  8   8.6   4.7
  5750  25.5  77.9  260  16  8  13.7   7.5 |  25.5  77.9  275  13  7   8.7   4.8
  5500  28.3  82.9  265  14  7  77.2  42.3 |  26.9  80.4  275  11  6  36.6  20.1
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613