Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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098 FXUS63 KGLD 231707 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1107 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Kit Carson, Cheyenne [CO], Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties. - Severe thunderstorms may develop generally along and east of Highway 27 both this afternoon and evening. 2 rounds of storms are possible and all hazards are possible. There is a 35% chance of no storms occurring if the air remains too dry. - A cold front moves through this evening and into tonight generally producing wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph. Gusts up to 65 mph are possible, but look to be sporadic if they do occur. - Saturday also looks like another day with critical fire weather conditions and severe weather possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 437 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 A fairly active day is possible for the Tri-State area today as an upper low swings through the Northern Rockies with a deepening surface low pressure system moving off the Front Range. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that the center of the low should reach the KS/CO border by the mid to late afternoon hours with the dryline extending into the first row of KS counties. With sunny skies and warm air advection from the southwest warming temperatures into the 80`s and low 90`s, relative humidity behind the dryline should lower into the lower teens (if not single digits). With winds gusting around 20 to 30 mph, critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be met for most counties along the Colorado border. However, the advancing surface low from the northwest could weaken the flow for counties along and north of Highway 36 and limit them to only an hour of critical fire conditions. As such, the Red Flag Warning remains for counties south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27. However, if observations later this morning show the surface low progressing slower, the remaining counties along the Colorado border may need to be added. In regards to severe weather, the threat area looks to largely be determined by the position of the dryline. For areas near and east of the dryline, severe storms will be possible with no inhibition and the dryline as a genesis point. Towering cu could develop through the afternoon, but may not initially be able to become storms as most guidance suggest a fairly dry profile, at least initially. Dry air entrainment may completely prevent any storm from forming, especially if low level moisture advection is weak and confined mostly to near the surface. However, if there is decent low level moisture advection ahead of the dryline and able to saturate the lowest km (as suggested by the NAM 3k), the severe weather threat would increase and would feature very large hail with damaging wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two. This would be similar to previous dryline events this year where large hail would be the main initial threat. Later in the evening, the cold front would move through and potentially generate additional storms in an environment that is much more supportive of tornadoes (probably QLCS) and straight line winds. For tornadoes, SRH would increase to 200-400 m2/s2 and 0-3km shear around 30-40kts, though it may be parallel instead of normal to the boundary which would keep chances low. For winds, DCAPE greater than 1250 J/KG, corfidi downshear around 50-60 kts, and a linear storm motion would allow gusts up to 70 mph. This second line of storms also looks like it would favor areas from Trenton, NE to Gove, KS and east. In short all modes of severe weather are possible today, but there is around a 35% that no storms form in the area if there is enough dry air entrainment. For the remainder of the night, cloud cover is forecast to increase as the cold front moves through the area. The bigger issue tonight is the potential for wind gusts up to 65 mph in the wake of the front. Guidance continue to suggest around 8mb or greater pressure rise this evening and into the early overnight hours as the system moves out of the area. Most of the wind gusts are currently forecast to be around 30-50mph, but will have to keep an eye on how the system leaves and how much the pressure initially drops. Winds will then lower slowly going into sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow, a milder day is forecast with winds continuing to weaken behind the system and mostly sunny skies. With the cold front`s passage, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60`s and 70`s. Going into tomorrow evening/night, a few showers are possible in Eastern Colorado as an upper shortwave moves through and low pressure begins to develop along the Front Range again. Nothing hazardous is expected at this time. Lows are forecast to drop into the 40`s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 419 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Storms, potentially severe, are forecast for the holiday weekend. Heading into the next work week, a drying/warming trend is anticipated as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. For Saturday, a somewhat similar setup to Thursday is forecast where southwest portions of the area will experience fire weather conditions west of the dryline while elsewhere could see the potential for development of severe thunderstorms. Storms could potentially form and progress eastward off the dryline in the afternoon-evening favoring locations along/east of Hwy 83, but also will want to monitor the potential for storms developing later in the evening as some forcing could be provided by the 700-850 mb wave swinging through possibly impacting more of the area. SPC has placed areas generally along/east of Hwy 83 in a marginal (hazard level 1/5) risk for severe weather while along/east of Hwy 283 are in a slight (hazard level 2/5) risk. The main system remains forecast to move through in the Sunday- Monday timeframe, providing 30-50% PoPs Sunday. Cooler temperatures expected before a drying/warming trend at the start of the work week with ridging building in. More storm chances return Tuesday- Wednesday as embedded waves traverse through the flow. For temperatures, middle 70s to upper 80s expected for highs on Saturday, slightly cooler in the 70s Sunday, then warming again Monday onward, with 80s for most of the area by Tuesday. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to low-mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Moisture return has been a bit stronger than anticipated which is leading to MVFR ceilings at KMCK currently which is currently forecasted to last for the next few hours. KGLD is forecast to remain at VFR conditions as a dry line is approaching from the west. Will continue to focus on thunderstorm potential this afternoon with the main focus being along the dryline which is anticipated to lie to the east of the KGLD terminal. KMCK has the relative better potential for storms, perhaps severe. A concern I do have with any storms that do form will be the duration of them as the better forcing remains to the west and north; this is reasoning for introducing a tempo group instead of a FM group. A cold front moves through late this evening with a sudden shift to the NW with winds; strong winds are forecast in the 40-45 knots range; although a rogues 50+ knot gust cant be completely ruled out. LLWS will be present as well with a strong LLJ followed by the cold front. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for KSZ013-027- 041. CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...Trigg