Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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589 FXUS63 KGRR 251451 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1051 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for Storms Sunday Evening - Cooler and Showery for Memorial Day and Tuesday - Dry Weather for Wednesday through Friday && .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 A beautiful day is unfolding here in West Michigan. Early morning rain and storms have cleared out to the east and abundant sunshine, pleasant temperatures, and generally light westerly winds will continue throughout the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 - Potential for Storms Sunday Evening Surface ridging moves in behind last nights cold front leading to quiet weather today. Focus turns to Sunday evening into Monday for more active weather potential. An mid-level trough rooted over the Central Plains ushers in a staunch shortwave through the Great Lakes as an associated surface low ejects out of the Rockies and occludes while moving into Lower Michigan. As a warm front lifts northwards, convection will develop before a cold front sweeps through later in the evening and overnight. Instability is still pretty lacking across southern Michigan, but there is uncertainty on the track of the low. Deterministic NAM and GFS bring the low through central lower Michigan while the Euro is taking a more northerly route bringing the low toward the tip of the mit. A more northerly track of the low would put southern Michigan more into the warm sector and supporting more severe weather development, while a more southerly track would keep favorable conditions for severe storms to our south. Even with the Euro advertising a more northerly track instability is still limited for our area. Altogether it appears the trends are favoring keeping the better instability south of the state line which reflects well with the SPC Day 2 outlook with Marginal up towards I-96 and Slight just south of the state line. A few strong storms may creep up towards I-94 to I- 96, but generally expect most of the severe weather activity to keep to our south. Still quite a bit of disagreement on rainfall totals through Monday morning with ensemble 24 hour QPF ranging from a few hundredths to over 1 inch across the I-94 corridor. PWAT values nose up towards 1.5 inches Sunday afternoon, so locally heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms. - Cooler and Showery for Memorial Day and Tuesday Cooler air will filter into the Great Lakes for Memorial Day and Tuesday as the low moves northeast into Ontario allowing a cold front to press off to the east early in the day. 850mb temperatures drop back into the single digits for early to mid week which should mean highs in the 60s. Showery weather can be expected as multiple shortwaves rotate through an upper trough which will be situated above the Great Lakes. Overall rainfall is expected to be on the lighter side given the deeper moisture will push off to the south and east with the cold front early Monday. Rainfall amounts will likely be less than a quarter of an inch for the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Some local pockets of a quarter to a half inch will be possible. Highs will be in the 60s given the cooler temperatures aloft and clouds/showers. It will not be a rainout by any means, but we will see some occasional light rain/showers. - Dry Weather for Wednesday through Friday Dry weather is a high confidence forecast for Thursday and Friday with both ridging at the surface and aloft. Wednesday there could be a few lingering showers, especially diurnally in the heat of the day. 850mb temperatures will dip to +3 to +4 C Wednesday morning. The cold air aloft and strong heating from a late May sun angle will likely bubble up some scattered showers in the midday and afternoon hours. Highs will likely hold in the 60s on Wednesday, rising into the 70s for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 750 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 A cold front is moving through Lower Michigan this morning and should be east of the TAF sites by 15Z-16Z. Some light rain showers are occurring ahead of the front and will likely only impact BTL, LAN and JXN through 14Z-15Z. A band of lower ceilings MVFR and IFR are near and just behind the front and these should move off to the east as well by 16Z. VFR weather is expected after 16Z. So, the weather is very much front loaded in the first 2-4 hours. After that we expect quiet aviation conditions. The wind the bulk of the day will be from the west around 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Conditons stay quiet through today, then westerly winds build Sunday night with an advancing low pressure system. Showers and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon, and winds and waves will build through Monday. Conditons will be dangerous for small craft, and waves and rip currents will be dangerous for beachgoers Sunday night through Monday evening. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AMD DISCUSSION...Duke/Thielke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Thielke