518
FXUS62 KGSP 290131
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
931 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday: Wind gusts have tapered off across the
majority of the mtn locations this evening. Stratocu are developing
along portions of the NC/TN border and continue tracking
southeastward across the SC Upstate this evening. Dry conditions
continue CWA wide with some isolated showers are noted across far
northern NC and western VA. No major changes were needed thanks to
the quiet wx pattern.

Otherwise, synoptic cold front and sfc trough remain stalled along
the Atlantic coast, with cyclonic upper flow over the eastern CONUS.
Ridging will strengthen over the CWA through the near term as an
upper trough makes slight eastward progress. Continuing relatively
dry westerly flow, combined with diurnal mixing this aftn lowering
crossover temp, suggests minimal fog tonight despite fairly good
radiational cooling conditions; min temps will end up 2-3 degrees
below normal. Ridge should reinforce capping inversion and inhibit
deep convection again on Wednesday. A shortwave rotating through the
trough will however strengthen the low-level gradient; along with
deeper mixing as a result of lower dewpoints that suggests slightly
windier conditions Wednesday. Max temps however will trend down a
couple degrees, returning to about normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain
overhead through much of the short-term period as cP surface high
shifts from the Upper Great Lakes region and sets up shop across the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas by Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will shift
offshore later Friday as a steep upper ridge axis slowly builds in
from the west. Needless to say, the forecast will be warm and very
dry as dewpoints remain in the 40s and 50s across the CFWA. Enjoy
this now as this could be one of the last stretch of actual Spring
before we become entrenched with heat and high humidity for the
coming Summer months. Temperatures will be slightly below-normal
through the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday: The aforementioned upper ridge axis will
drift over the area and shift offshore by the second half of the
weekend. In this case, return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will
filter back into the region. Saturday will likely be the last
"nice" day we experience before the pattern becomes active once
again. Model guidance still suggests a series of shortwaves
to cross across the southeastern CONUS through the end of the
forecast period. This will place the CFWA back into a diurnally
driven convective regime, with some enhancement with each passing
shortwave. Temperatures will gradually creep back up to near-normal
values and even above normal by the end of the medium range,
including the dreadful humid airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry again through the 00Z TAF
forecast period across all terminals. Still seeing some VFR cumulus
lingering, especially across the SC terminals, as of 00Z. Cumulus
should gradually dissipate over the next few hours with the loss of
daytime heating. A few cirrus are also noted as of 00Z tracking
eastward across the region. Cirrus should linger intermittently
through the overnight hours. Low-end gusts continue at KAVL but have
tapered off elsewhere. Gusts at KAVL should gradually diminish
through the early evening hours. Winds will go light overnight,
increasing in speed throughout Wednesday. Thus, low-end gusts are
expected to return Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Wind
direction will remain NW through Wednesday morning, becoming more
WNW Wednesday afternoon and evening east of the mtns. NW winds will
continue through Wednesday at KAVL. Afternoon VFR cumulus should
return again Wednesday afternoon thanks to daytime heating.

Outlook: VFR conditions will linger as drier weather prevails
through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances may
return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...AR