Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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603 FXUS62 KGSP 281343 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 943 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Tuesday: No major changes to thinking for the near term forecast. A quieter stretch of weather kicks off as the surface cold front exits the CWA and heads out to sea. An omega blocking pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps the eastern trough north of the CWA. Subsidence inversion should cap off any deep convection east of the Appalachian spine, although a shallow convective layer should permit some cu to develop diurnally today. Slightly deeper convection in East TN could lead to a few sprinkles, which could move into the NC mountains this aftn/evening, but this still is unlikely enough that PoPs are kept below slight chance even there. The somewhat broad pressure gradient will allow for some low-end wind gusts across the higher elevations this afternoon and diminish into the overnight hours. Upper flow should start to turn more NW by tonight as the ridge axis over the central plains moves eastward. Temps look to be on track but made minor adjustments to hourly trends today. Still expecting maxes in the mid to upper 80s east of the mountains with overnight temps dipping a bit due to drier air reducing dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 AM Tuesday...The latter half of the week looks fairly quiet for our area as we should remain under a favorable part of an amplifying pattern in the nrn stream. Guidance indicates a slow transition between broadly cyclonic flow aloft associated with an upper low spinning over Quebec. Meanwhile, the upper ridge axis will move from the High Plains to the Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley region, supporting a relatively cool continental high that gradually builds in from the N/NW, especially Thursday. We might not notice the high temps all that much as they will still be close to normal, but the air mass will be dry and that will be noticed. Low temps should be about five degrees below normal. One wonders if this will be our last stint of relatively cool mornings now that we are getting to the end of May. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 237 AM Tuesday...Looks like we should get the first half of the weekend with nice weather as a mid/upper ridge builds in from the west, supporting high pressure, which keeps high temps a few degrees below normal and low temps nicely cool Friday night. However, the pattern is progressive and the model guidance is consistent with moving the ridge axis overhead late Saturday. Once that happens, weak sfc high pressure gets pushed off the Carolina coast and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico will improve. Showers and thunderstorms could arrive as early as Saturday night as a lead short wave is shown to ride up the ridge from the west. Whether or not this takes the form of a dying MCS remains to be seen, but that is plausible. Sunday begins a more active period for us as we regain an air mass more favorable to diurnal convection. Much beyond that, confidence remains low as there is poor run-to-run consistency with how to handle the next mid/upper trof to the west. Previous runs had a large cut-off low and tonight`s runs bear little resemblance. Instead, we see a series of short waves moving along in a more low amplitude flow and a compact upper low somewhere not west of here. A common theme is that we stay unsettled with diurnally driven or enhanced convection, so a chance of precip will be kept for the early part of the week. Temps climb back to a few degrees above normal, while low temps have a more noticeable climb to something closer to five above normal by Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will continue to prevail NW and remain light outside the mountains. KAVL could see some low-end gusts of 15-20kts during the afternoon period, but wind gusts stay confined to the mountains. Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails through the end of the week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...CP/Wimberley SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...CP