155
FXUS62 KGSP 281010
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday: Forecast is on track this morning and
no updates were needed outside of a minor tweak to temps.
Meanwhile, a quieter stretch of weather kicks off as the surface
cold front exits the CWA and heads out to sea. An omega
blocking pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps the eastern
trough north of the CWA. The somewhat broad pressure gradient
will allow for some low-end wind gusts across the higher
elevations Tuesday afternoon and diminish into the overnight
hours. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep rain chances at bay
and sets up the area for multiple days of dry conditions. Upper
flow should start to turn more NW by Tuesday night as the ridge
axis over the central plains moves eastward. Guidance has a weak
and rather quick attempt of an isolated QPF response over the
far northern mountains, but there is very little confidence.
Will cap off PoPs less than anything mentionable at this point.
Temps approach the mid to upper 80s east of the mountains with
overnight temps dipping a bit due to drier air reducing
dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 AM Tuesday...The latter half of the week looks fairly
quiet for our area as we should remain under a favorable part of
an amplifying pattern in the nrn stream. Guidance indicates a slow
transition between broadly cyclonic flow aloft associated with an
upper low spinning over Quebec. Meanwhile, the upper ridge axis will
move from the High Plains to the Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley region,
supporting a relatively cool continental high that gradually builds
in from the N/NW, especially Thursday. We might not notice the
high temps all that much as they will still be close to normal,
but the air mass will be dry and that will be noticed. Low temps
should be about five degrees below normal. One wonders if this
will be our last stint of relatively cool mornings now that we
are getting to the end of May.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 237 AM Tuesday...Looks like we should get the first half
of the weekend with nice weather as a mid/upper ridge builds
in from the west, supporting high pressure, which keeps high
temps a few degrees below normal and low temps nicely cool
Friday night. However, the pattern is progressive and the model
guidance is consistent with moving the ridge axis overhead late
Saturday. Once that happens, weak sfc high pressure gets pushed
off the Carolina coast and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
will improve. Showers and thunderstorms could arrive as early as
Saturday night as a lead short wave is shown to ride up the ridge
from the west. Whether or not this takes the form of a dying MCS
remains to be seen, but that is plausible. Sunday begins a more
active period for us as we regain an air mass more favorable to
diurnal convection. Much beyond that, confidence remains low as
there is poor run-to-run consistency with how to handle the next
mid/upper trof to the west. Previous runs had a large cut-off
low and tonight`s runs bear little resemblance. Instead, we see
a series of short waves moving along in a more low amplitude
flow and a compact upper low somewhere not west of here. A common
theme is that we stay unsettled with diurnally driven or enhanced
convection, so a chance of precip will be kept for the early
part of the week. Temps climb back to a few degrees above normal,
while low temps have a more noticeable climb to something closer
to five above normal by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. A few areas of patchy fog from the later
overnight hours should dissipate quickly after daybreak at KAND with
drier air moving in. Winds will continue to prevail NW and remain
light outside the mountains. KAVL could see some low-end gusts of 15-
20kts during the afternoon period, but wind gusts stay confined to
the mountains.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails
through the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP